Oracle stock trades up to 120.80 as Oracle promotes AI World Hub event

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Oracle rises 0.55% to $120.80 today

Highlights

ORCL remains in a bearish structure, trading well below key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages.
Technical momentum indicators are generally bearish and oversold, signaling continued downside pressure with occasional short-term exhaustion.
Price is expected to move sideways between $115 and $127, with further declines likely if support at $115 breaks.

The event will run from October 25 to 28. Oracle encouraged participation at #AIWorld.

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Bearish structure as price remains far below major averages

ORCL is trading at $120.80, which is significantly below the SMA-20 at $133.02, SMA-50 at $170.11, and SMA-200 at $186.57. This positioning signals sustained downside pressure and a bearish structure across short-, medium-, and long-term trends. The Ichimoku Kijun level on D1 is $151.39, acting as immediate resistance above the current price. Near-term support is found around the HMA at $117.69, with additional key support at the 52-week low of $114.81. Immediate resistance is identified at $133.02 (SMA-20), while the Ichimoku Kijun at $151.39 forms the next key resistance.

Oversold momentum persists as rebound stalls below resistance

Momentum indicators on D1 remain bearish: MACD signals a strong sell, and ADX at 29.56 confirms active downside momentum. RSI at 32.76 and CCI at –100.20 both indicate oversold conditions, while Stoch RSI is firmly overbought, reflecting conflicting signals that suggest short-term exhaustion. BBP is deeply negative at –6.23 and classified as oversold, reinforcing that sellers continue to dominate intraday momentum. ORCL is trading at $120.80, up from $115.13 a week ago, reflecting a 4.92% weekly gain. The price is positioned in the middle of this week's trading range, with weekly volatility standing at 12.22%. This move signals a rebound from the weekly low but remains capped well below resistance levels.

Sideways bias as downside risks dominate near yearly lows

For the upcoming week, a normalized forecast range is set between $115 and $127, keeping within 5% of the current price as typical for a blue-chip stock. Relative to the 52-week low ($114.81) and high ($345.72), this forecast is near the yearly trough, highlighting persistent long-term weakness. The probability of a further price decrease is very high (more than 80%), driven by sell signals on RSI-W1, ADX-W1, MACD-W1, and MA-50-W1. The chance of a recovery is therefore very low (less than 20%). The baseline scenario expects sideways movement between $115 and $127. A bullish scenario would require a break above the $133 near-term resistance, opening the path toward the $151 area. A bearish scenario unfolds if the price slips below the $115 support, potentially revisiting or making new lows for the year.

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle faced persistent technical weakness and rising financing risks, which kept shares under pressure. In light of ongoing developments, watch for any change in credit market sentiment or a decisive technical breakout as signals for potential reversal or further downside risk.

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