Nio stock selloff deepens after J.P. Morgan downgrade citing weak EV demand

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Nio drops 3.94% today to $3.90

Highlights

Nio reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of RMB32.14 billion, a 69.1% increase year-over-year, with vehicle deliveries up 49.4% to 107,658 units and reduced losses.
August deliveries reached 35,836 units, a 14.5% gain from last year, bringing total 2026 year-to-date deliveries to 262,893 units.
Shares of Nio closed down 3.94% to $3.9 as technical indicators remain bearish, with the price expected to consolidate between $3.71 and $4.1.

Sales gains and operational momentum amid persistent market pressure

Nio's second-quarter 2026 results showed revenue rising 69.1% year-over-year to RMB32.14 billion (US$4.74 billion), with vehicle deliveries increasing 49.4% to 107,658 units and narrowed operating and net losses, according to Finance Yahoo. This strong performance in core metrics highlights that underlying demand for Nio's vehicles remains robust, though not sufficient to offset continued market softness. In August, the company delivered 35,836 vehicles, a 14.5% year-over-year increase, bringing year-to-date deliveries to 262,893 units as reported by GlobeNewswire, further demonstrating operational momentum—even as price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals and resistance as sellers maintain technical control

On the hourly chart, NIO is trading below its MA-20 at $4.22, MA-50 at $4.32, and the longer-term MA-200 at $5.25. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $4.15 and now acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative, with both MACD and ADX showing a sell bias. At the same time, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all in oversold territory, suggesting heightened downside momentum. Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not reinforce the overall trend.

Downside risk dominates as consolidation zone limits rebound chances

In the short term, NIO is likely to consolidate within a volatility band between $3.71 and $4.1. There is a 23% probability of an upward move, while the likelihood of further downside is 77%, pointing to a lower chance of a near-term rebound. The base case scenario is for price stabilization inside the current range. Should the price break above $4.15, short covering could trigger a corrective bounce, while a move below $3.71 would likely extend the recent selloff.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Nio's strong year-over-year revenue and delivery growth as a signal of underlying market demand. However, he notes that macro sentiment and persistent negative price momentum are still dominant in the short term. The analyst expects operational progress to eventually become a revaluation catalyst once broader sentiment improves. 'I remain constructive on Nio’s long-term outlook, but near-term upside needs a shift in market confidence and a break above $4.15.'

Earlier, analysts noted that Nio was struggling with persistent technical weakness and continued selling pressure despite operational improvements. The current analysis strengthens this bearish outlook, highlighting a prevailing downside risk with $3.71 now serving as a critical level to watch for potential further declines.

Source of Data: NIO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.