DOJ antitrust investigation into $20B Groq deal: NVDA key levels to watch

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Nvidia drops 2.46% after DOJ probe

Highlights

The Department of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation into Nvidia's $20 billion AI licensing deal with Groq, raising regulatory risks for expansion.
Nvidia issued second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion with EPS of $2.22, beating consensus, and announced an $80 billion share buyback plan.
Nvidia stock faces short- and medium-term bearish pressure with a high probability of declining toward $213.25 to $223.60 over the next three days.

Regulatory investigation and new deals offset by persistent selling

The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated an antitrust investigation into Nvidia's $20 billion licensing agreement with AI startup Groq, raising the prospect of regulatory intervention that could disrupt the company's expansion in the artificial intelligence sector. In a separate development, Nvidia formalized a partnership with eight Australian cloud and data center operators to build up to 2 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by 2027, a project valued at up to A$100 billion, according to Cryptobriefing, potentially reinforcing its position within the Asia-Pacific infrastructure market. Alongside these events, Nvidia reported second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion with diluted earnings per share of $2.22, surpassing consensus estimates, and distributed an $80 billion share buyback authorization as well as a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend. Despite these corporate actions, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed signals as downside bias clashes with oversold momentum

Technical levels show NVDA below both its MA-20 ($226.8) and MA-50 ($224.55) on the hourly chart, while sitting above its MA-200 ($197.08) on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $229.11 stands as the next key resistance, with $213.25 acting as initial support. Momentum signals remain mixed: MACD and Awesome Oscillator indicate downside bias, aided by RSI at 40.92 and a negative CCI, both showing persistent weakness. ADX signals continued strength in the prevailing long-term move. Oscillators such as Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power highlight that the stock is intraday oversold with clear seller dominance, despite low volatility and a 5.91 gap early in today's session. A divergence between trend and oscillator signals reveals unsettled market dynamics.

Bearish tilt prevails as range-bound outlook limits upside

In the short term, NVDA is expected to consolidate within the $213.25 to $223.60 range, reflecting a volatility band near current levels. Upside probability is low under current conditions, while the risk of a further decline remains high. The baseline forecast calls for sideways movement in a narrow corridor. A bullish scenario requires a breakout above resistance at $229.11, while renewed selling below $213.25 would open the door to additional declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees a mixed environment for Nvidia as regulatory headwinds now compete with strong operational results. He notes that the DOJ investigation raises significant legal and sentiment risks, outweighing the positives from record earnings, new partnerships, and capital returns. With price action stuck below key moving averages and technical signals showing persistent weakness, Kharitonov believes further upside is unlikely without a decisive move above resistance. "Base case remains range-bound with downside risk — I stay defensive until $229.11 is reclaimed."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia's price was consolidating within a neutral pattern as the company faced both regulatory scrutiny and the potential for expansion through major partnerships. The latest technical and fundamental developments reinforce this landscape, with NVDA trading in a narrowing band and a decisive move above $229.11 or below $213.25 serving as the key signal for the next directional trend.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.