ADBE rallies as share buyback reduces diluted share count

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Adobe gains 3.56% as revenue jumps

Highlights

Adobe posted record third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.76 billion, up 13% year over year, and raised full-year targets.
AI-first annualized recurring revenue surpassed $650 million, growing over 150% year over year and expanding Adobe's revenue base.
Shares of Adobe saw renewed buying on strong results, but technical signals remain bearish and the stock is likely to trade between $254.09 and $268.59 in the next few days.

Upbeat revenue and AI growth drive renewed investor conviction

Adobe’s record third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year and accompanied by raised full-year revenue and profit targets, has driven renewed buying interest, according to Finance Yahoo. This result highlights both the company’s strong operational execution and positive demand momentum. Rapid growth in AI-first annualized recurring revenue, which has now surpassed $650 million and increased over 150% year-over-year, expands the revenue base and fuels investor optimism around Adobe’s product strategy. Additionally, the reduction of diluted share count by about 7% through the repurchase of 9.5 million shares in the latest quarter directly supports per-share metrics and market valuation.

Bearish momentum persists as overbought signals diverge from trend

On the technical side, ADBE is trading above the MA-20 but remains below both the MA-50 and MA-200 on the working timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun acts as immediate support at $250.48. Momentum signals remain decisively bearish, as both MACD and ADX point to a sell bias. RSI reads 40.78, while Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions, and CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power confirms buyer dominance on the intraday move, yet there is a notable divergence between overbought oscillator readings and persistent weakness in momentum.

Downside risk elevated as consolidation expected within technical range

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the expected price range for ADBE is projected between $254.09 and $268.59, with a 32% probability of an upward move and a greater likelihood of a decline. The baseline scenario sees price consolidating within this corridor. A bullish scenario would require a break above resistance to enable a test of the upper band, while a drop below immediate support at $250.48 would likely reinforce downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees strong headline financials and robust AI revenue growth as positives for Adobe, but remains cautious given the technical structure. He notes that price is still below major trend levels and momentum signals have yet to confirm a sustained reversal. The analyst believes consolidation is the base case, with downside risk outweighing short-term upside. "Until ADBE can reclaim its longer-term averages, I remain defensive and see any rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure."

Earlier, analysts noted that Adobe was under sustained technical and strategic pressure, with downside risks persisting ahead of its earnings release. The current developments introduce stronger operational and demand metrics, but with technical momentum still weak, the immediate focus shifts to the potential price reaction around the $250.48 support in the days ahead.

Source of Data: ADBE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.