What's behind Nucor's latest stock surge?

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Nucor surges 3.39% after Q3 update

Highlights

Nucor raised its third quarter earnings guidance to $5.55 to $5.65 per share, citing stronger steel mills and products performance.
The company executed $1.36 billion in shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, retiring 2.03 million shares at an average price of $247.04.
Shares of Nucor trade just below short-term averages with a weak trend and are expected to range from $241.25 to $255.69 over the next five sessions.

Earnings upgrade and buybacks as steel operations outperform and costs rise

Nucor raised its third quarter earnings guidance to $5.55–$5.65 per share, up from $5.04 in the previous quarter, reflecting stronger results in its steel mills and steel products segments. The company repurchased 2.03 million shares during the third quarter at an average price of $247.04 and returned $1.36 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Earnings in its raw materials business are expected to decrease due to higher product costs.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nucor’s rally as fragile. He notes downside technical signals remain dominant despite positive EPS guidance and significant buybacks. Momentum indicators are weak, and sellers control the current trend. Risks from falling raw materials earnings may weigh further. "The rebound looks like a temporary pause, not a real reversal — caution is warranted until technical strength returns."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the strong fundamental performance behind Nucor’s guidance upgrade. He points to robust shareholder returns and ongoing share buybacks as confirming management confidence. The stock’s position above its 200-day moving average preserves a bullish long-term structure. "With such proactive capital allocation, I see opportunity for further growth once market momentum improves."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains unconvinced by the bounce. He notes weak sentiment and a divergence between price action and underlying momentum signals. Broader macro headwinds, like higher raw material costs, add pressure. "Until confidence improves and cost risks fade, I expect sellers to keep control."

Seller pressure and weak momentum as near-term resistance holds

Nucor is trading just below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($249.98 and $255.81), indicating short- to medium-term pressure from sellers, but remains above the 200-day moving average ($214.66), which signals long-term support and a bullish structure. Immediate resistance is seen at the near-term ceiling of $248.76 (Ichimoku Kijun), with a near-term floor at $243.75 (week high). Momentum indicators point to a lack of strength in the current move. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bearish at -6.46, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 14.51 signals a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.07 and, along with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -82.56, signals mild oversold conditions. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) reading of -1.33 confirms sellers dominate intraday momentum and forecasts an oversold state. The stock opened with a downside gap of about $1.66 (-0.69%) and is currently near session highs, up $8.16 or 3.39% from the previous close. Intraday volatility stands at 1.65%. There is notable divergence as upward price action contradicts dominant bearish momentum signals, resulting in a mixed intraday tone.

Earlier, analysts noted that Nucor faced persistent short-term selling pressure and a bearish technical setup despite maintaining strong long-term fundamentals. The current rebound, occurring amid ongoing momentum weakness and a mixed technical outlook, places emphasis on the $248.76 resistance level as the key threshold for any sustained upside in the days ahead.

Source of Data: NUE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.