Tilray gains Portugal approval and reports revenue jump: Can TLRY stop the decline?

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Tilray drops 2.83% to $3.27 today

Highlights

Tilray Brands gained approval from INFARMED allowing its Portugal facility to conduct in-house product quality testing, reducing reliance on external labs.
Tilray Brands reported first-quarter 2027 revenue of $257 million, up 23% year over year, but core cannabis sales fell 13% and cash burn rose to $23.4 million.
Shares of Tilray trade below key technical levels with bearish momentum, forecast to range from $3.08 to $3.46 and a high probability of further downside.

Profitability strains intensify despite regulatory win and revenue growth

Tilray Brands received approval from Portugal’s National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED) for its Cantanhede facility to perform in-house microbiological and chemical/physical quality testing, a change expected to accelerate product releases and reduce external lab dependency, according to Investing.com. Alongside the regulatory development, Tilray reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $257 million, up 23% year-over-year largely due to the BrewDog acquisition, but noted a 13% decline in core cannabis sales. The company also reported a net loss and increased cash burn to $23.4 million in the period, which may signal ongoing profitability and funding challenges.

Persistent technical weakness as key levels hold firm amid volatility

The price of TLRY remains under all key moving averages, with the hourly MA-20 at $3.47 and MA-50 at $3.61, and the daily MA-200 at $5.92; the Ichimoku Kijun level at $3.55 stands as immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both give Sell signals, while RSI is at 32.08 and also signals Sell, nearing oversold territory. CCI confirms the asset is oversold and Stochastic RSI is Neutral, with the Bull/Bear Power indicator showing seller dominance intraday. Awesome Oscillator is Neutral, and recent price action features a $0.05 negative gap, elevated volatility, and positioning near session lows.

Downside risk prevails as rebound odds shrink within tight band

In the short term, TLRY is expected to trade between $3.08 and $3.46, reflecting the current volatility band relative to recent levels. The probability of a rebound is considered very low, while further downside remains highly likely. The baseline scenario envisages consolidation within the forecasted range, with a bullish outcome requiring a close above the $3.55 resistance. A bearish scenario would be triggered by a break below $3.08, which could expose the stock to additional weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Tilray’s regulatory progress in Portugal offers some operational efficiency, but is overshadowed by persistent losses and weak cannabis sales. He sees strong technical and fundamental headwinds, with all major indicators suggesting continued downside and little evidence of near-term bullish momentum. Kharitonov believes the stock lacks positive catalysts, while mounting cash burn and negative sentiment dominate the current setup. "Unless Tilray reclaims the $3.55 resistance and shows improvement in its core cannabis business, any rebound here looks highly unlikely to me."

Previously it was reported that Tilray faced persistent technical weakness, with ongoing losses in its cannabis segment only partly offset by growth in beverages. The latest developments confirm continued downside risk, with the stock vulnerable to further losses if it fails to hold above the $3.08 support level.

Source of Data: TLRY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.