Strategy shares technical analysis: Persistent seller control with price approaching $140.06 support

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Strategy slides 4.79% to $144.89 today

Highlights

Strategy allocated $192.4 million to repurchase preferred shares and $21.5 million to buy 250 bitcoins in early October 2026.
Last quarter's loss was smaller than forecast, with EPS of -$2.189 versus a larger expected deficit.
Shares trade below short- and medium-term moving averages as bearish momentum persists, with the expected range at $140.06 to $151.69 and a 76% probability of further downside.

Buybacks and bitcoin purchases shift risk as downside pressure lingers

Strategy executed $192.4 million in buybacks of its STRC preferred shares and invested $21.5 million to acquire 250 bitcoins between October 5 and 11, 2026, according to CryptoSlate. This substantial allocation of capital reduced the preferred share float and modestly increased digital asset exposure, affecting the company’s risk profile and resource flexibility. Additional context came from a better-than-expected loss last quarter, with EPS of -$2.189 versus market forecasts of a much steeper deficit, as reported by Tipranks. Despite these recent actions, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals and oversold readings as momentum diverges

The technical structure for MSTR shows price below the MA-20 at $153.88 and MA-50 at $156.53, while remaining above the long-term MA-200 at $135.8. Immediate resistance stands at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $152.89. Momentum indicators reinforce a negative bias: MACD points to a sell signal, ADX remains neutral indicating low trend strength, and RSI sits at 43.76 (Sell). Both CCI and Bull/Bear Power reflect oversold conditions, confirming persistent seller control, though Stoch RSI displays a strong buy, highlighting a possible short-term oversold bounce. The Awesome Oscillator continues to indicate bearish momentum, and today's session featured high volatility with a gap open and a close near the session low. A notable divergence emerges between deep oversold oscillator readings and ongoing downward momentum.

High downside risk persists as volatility shapes consolidation range

Looking ahead, the most likely scenario is for MSTR to consolidate within the $140.06–$151.69 range amid continued volatility. The probability of further downside remains high at 76%, with only a 24% chance of a sustained upward move in the near term. A clear break above the Ichimoku Kijun resistance at $152.89 would open the way for a short-term bullish reversal, while a close below the $140.06 support could accelerate further losses. Market participants should closely monitor volatility and confirmation of support and resistance levels to gauge short-term direction.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees MSTR under clear technical pressure despite notable capital deployment into buybacks and bitcoin. He notes that price remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators still favoring sellers. While recent corporate actions and an EPS beat have not shifted market sentiment, risk of further downside persists. "Base case remains consolidation below resistance at $152.89, and unless buyers reclaim that level, I remain defensive on MSTR in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that Strategy's ongoing Bitcoin acquisitions and preferred share buybacks underpinned a broadly constructive outlook for its digital asset strategy. In the current context, however, the prevailing technical weakness and persistent selling pressure signal an increased risk of a downside break below $140.06, making this support level critical to watch in the near term.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.