Qualcomm secures custom CPU rights after legal win: Can QCOM avoid further losses?

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Qualcomm drops 3.17% today to $172.7

Highlights

A Delaware jury ruled that Arm Holdings breached its license with Qualcomm, restoring Qualcomm’s rights to develop custom CPUs and collaborate with Amazon.
Qualcomm signed a long-term cross-license deal with Transsion, but faced overheating issues with its next flagship chip in the Samsung Galaxy S27 Ultra.
Qualcomm stock trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with high risk of downside toward $168.41 to $180.45 in the next few days.

Technical license win offsets legal risk amid product headwinds

A Delaware federal jury determined that Arm Holdings had breached its license agreement with Qualcomm, confirming the company’s right to continue developing custom CPUs and pursue its AI and data center chip roadmap with Amazon, according to Simplywall. While a jury awarded Qualcomm $2 in damages, Yahoo Finance reported that the core outcome was restoration of Qualcomm’s technical access and ability to collaborate with major partners. Additional developments included a long-term cross-license agreement with Transsion, as noted by Marketscreener, though recent testing of Qualcomm’s next flagship chip revealed overheating issues in Samsung’s Galaxy S27 Ultra, leading Samsung to explore its own Exynos solution, according to Sedaily. The resolution of the legal dispute supports Qualcomm’s R&D path but is accompanied by ongoing product concerns and strategic licensing efforts, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum as overbought signals challenge bullish bias

On the hourly chart, QCOM is trading below the MA-20 at $175.42 and the MA-50 at $175.22, while remaining above the MA-200 daily moving average at $169.37. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $174.81 serves as immediate resistance. RSI reads 63.32 and signals a buy, with ADX and the Awesome Oscillator also reflecting bullish momentum. In contrast, Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions, pointing to recent buyer dominance. While a price gap of 1.32 opened below the previous close and the share price nears today’s low, volatility remains moderate amid mixed momentum signals.

Downside risk persists as rebound odds remain subdued

Over the next 2–3 trading days, QCOM is expected to fluctuate within the $168.41 to $180.45 range. The likelihood of an upward move is very low, while the probability of further decline remains elevated, suggesting that an upward reversal is not likely. In the baseline scenario, the price may remain rangebound between the current support and resistance levels. A breakout above the Ichimoku Kijun would be required for a renewed advance, whereas a drop below $168.41 support could signal additional downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, views Qualcomm’s position as fundamentally reinforced by the recent legal win, which secures its custom CPU and AI chip roadmap. He notes that positive licensing progress is counterbalanced by technical concerns with the upcoming flagship chip and ongoing share price pressure. Despite prevailing uncertainty in price action, Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook as long as legal clarity holds and R&D continues uninterrupted. "Legal resolution gives Qualcomm a solid footing for long-term growth, and I see further upside if R&D momentum is preserved and technical setbacks are addressed."

Earlier, analysts noted that Qualcomm’s outlook had improved following a legal victory that reduced key risks, with attention turning to technical levels as determinants of trend continuation. The current price action, however, highlights persistent selling pressure and product challenges, making sustained movement above the Ichimoku Kijun level a critical indicator for any potential recovery.

Source of Data: QCOM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.