Strategy ramps up stock purchases: Can MSTR sustain this rally?

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Strategy jumps 2.86% to $146.8 today

Highlights

The increased buyback cap to $3 billion and focus on preferred stock repurchases are driving demand for MicroStrategy stock by reducing float.
Between mid-September and mid-October 2026, MicroStrategy allocated $890 million to equity repurchases versus $262.1 million for Bitcoin and STRC preferred, prioritizing shareholder value.
Technicals show MicroStrategy stock sustains a bullish structure above key moving averages, with predicted price range of $138.94 to $154.66 and a 65% probability of upward movement.

Equity support intensifies as buybacks outpace Bitcoin allocation

Strategy's decision to raise its buyback cap to $3 billion and concentrate purchases on preferred stock between mid-September and mid-October 2026 is currently driving demand for MSTR, as this large-scale capital deployment reduces available float and reinforces shareholder value. Over this period, the company spent $890 million on share buybacks—three times the amount allocated to Bitcoin purchases—making equity support the dominant theme versus digital asset accumulation. Additional activity between October 12 and October 18, 2026 included the repurchase of $193.1 million in STRC preferred stock and a relatively smaller $22.1 million investment in Bitcoin, moves that diversify capital allocation but further emphasize the near-term focus on supporting the stock. Notably, Tokenpost reported that a golden cross formation appeared at the October 19, 2026 close, potentially attracting further momentum-based buyers.

Divergent momentum signals as price tests upper technical bands

On the technical front, MSTR is trading above its MA-20 at $139.75 and MA-50 at $145.68 on the working timeframe, with further confirmation from the daily MA-200 at $135.45. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $142.46 now stands as immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD is at Strong Sell, ADX signals a Buy, while RSI at 50.59, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all indicate buyer dominance. Stoch RSI remains Neutral, and the overall momentum picture is characterized by a clear divergence between MACD and price action, with intraday gains contradicting bearish momentum signals from MACD.

Range-bound outlook as volatility drives bullish bias

In the near term, MSTR is likely to trade within the $138.94 to $154.66 range given current volatility. Probabilities favor an upward move at 65%, with a 35% likelihood of decline. Price targets for a bullish scenario involve breaking through the upper end of the corridor, while a bearish break of Kijun support would open room down to the lower boundary. The baseline expectation calls for range-bound action barring a catalyst to tip directionality.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, assesses that MSTR’s short-term trend is supported by aggressive buybacks, but warns that underlying technical signals remain mixed. He notes that while the golden cross and above-average price action seem bullish, the MACD’s strong sell signal and range-bound expectations temper immediate optimism. The analyst sees a 65% probability of upward movement but stresses reliance on recent capital allocation and key support at $142.46. "Until price breaks above $154.66 or loses support at $138.94, conviction remains low — I stay cautious and wait for stronger confirmation."

Previously it was reported that Strategy’s capital allocation favored Bitcoin accumulation and preferred stock buybacks, but short-term technical signals remained uncertain. The current article adds a new dimension by highlighting that recent buyback activity has shifted the focus toward equity support, making the $154.66 upper boundary the key level to watch for a decisive breakout.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.