Strategy stock forecast: Mixed momentum signals suggest downside risk increases

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Strategy drops 5.84% to $144.51 today

Highlights

Strategy Inc. raised its preferred stock buyback authorization to $3 billion after repurchasing $193.1 million of STRC shares below par value.
This capital return shrinks the supply of preferred shares and could affect liquidity and supply-demand balance in the stock.
Shares trade below short- and medium-term moving averages with projected range at $134.63 to $160.02 and near-term downside probability at 71%.

Expanded buybacks as management counters supply amid selling pressure

The board of Strategy Inc. raised its preferred stock repurchase authorization to $3 billion after deploying $193.1 million in a week to buy back STRC shares at below par value, according to Yahoo Finance. This direct capital return reduces the outstanding supply of preferred shares and may alter liquidity profiles, with potential implications for supply-demand balance in the equity. Expanded buybacks can also signal management's intent to deploy capital for shareholder return, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed short-term momentum as buyers hold key support

On the H1 timeframe, MSTR is trading below both the MA-20 ($144.98) and MA-50 ($145.58), with long-term support still held above the MA-200 at $135.4. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $144.62, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum remains positive, as MACD and ADX both show buy signals. RSI is at 66.43 (Buy), but CCI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions, and Stoch RSI is neutral. The Awesome Oscillator supports the upward momentum, while Bull/Bear Power continues to reflect buyer dominance. However, the recent intraday sell-off alongside bullish momentum signals highlights a mixed short-term sentiment.

Downside bias as consolidation persists within wide band

In the next 2–3 trading days, MSTR is expected to trade within a typical volatility band from $134.63 to $160.02. Current forecasts assign a 71% probability to a downward move and 29% to a rebound higher. The base scenario envisions a period of sideways consolidation between these levels. A breakout above immediate resistance could initiate a bullish move, while a drop below support would reinforce the bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees MSTR’s technical and fundamental setup as vulnerable despite the board’s aggressive buyback move. He notes that the stock is under both short- and mid-term moving averages, and bearish sentiment dominates near term. Sentiment around the capital return is overshadowed by ongoing selling pressure. "Until MSTR reclaims resistance and shows sustained buyer commitment, any upside here carries elevated risk."

Previously it was reported that Strategy's capital management actions and accumulating digital assets provided a broadly constructive outlook, even as technical signals were mixed. The latest expansion of the share repurchase program adds a notable capital allocation dimension, and with volatility elevated, traders should monitor potential directional shifts if price decisively breaks the $134.63 support or $160.02 resistance in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.