Will Circle stock break above $76.38 resistance amid weak momentum?

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Circle rises 2.93% to $74.21 today

Highlights

Circle is set to announce third-quarter results on November 4 with investor focus on profitability and growth metrics.
The margin for Circle's USDC 'keep' fell to 36.4% in the third quarter, which may impact sentiment.
CRCL/USD trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, and the expected price range in the next 2 to 3 days is $69.3 to $79.06.

Margin squeeze and institutional stake drive pre-earnings sentiment shift

Circle is set to release its third-quarter earnings before the market opens on November 4, with the earnings event likely to act as a near-term catalyst by focusing market attention on core profitability and growth metrics, according to Coinotag. Recent reporting shows the company has experienced margin pressure in the third quarter, as its margin ('keep') declined to about 36.4% following shifts in USDC distribution, which may weigh on investor sentiment heading into the announcement, as noted by Seeking Alpha. Meanwhile, BOCHK Asset Management Ltd increased its stake in Circle by 264.4% during the quarter, according to MarketBeat, providing a signal of institutional engagement amid these trends.

Downward momentum holds as price faces layered resistance

On the hourly chart, CRCL remains below the MA-20 at $75.09 and MA-50 at $79.07, while on the daily timeframe the price is under the MA-200 at $86.04. The Ichimoku Kijun at $76.38 is acting as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are negative, with MACD positioned on Strong Sell and ADX showing a Sell. RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI are neutral, but Bull/Bear Power remains negative at -1.43 and the Awesome Oscillator signals continued downward momentum.

Downside risk dominant as breakout levels define short-term path

In the short term, CRCL is expected to trade within a range of $69.3 to $79.06 over the next 2–3 trading days. Current probability models indicate less than a 20% chance of an upward move and more than an 80% likelihood of continued downside. The baseline scenario anticipates prices remaining within this volatility band, with a breakout above $76.38 needed to trigger a bullish scenario, while a break below $69.3 would increase the risk of further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Circle (CRCL) facing persistent pressure from weakening technical momentum and shrinking margins. He notes that institutional flows offer some support, but the overall setup is constrained by negative momentum signals and key resistances near $76.38. Base case remains a range move below $79.06, with little probability of a breakout until core levels are reclaimed. "As long as price stays under the MA-20 and fundamental headwinds persist, I expect further downside risk to dominate."

Previously it was reported that Ark Invest significantly increased its holdings in several crypto-linked equities including Circle, amid sector-wide price retreats and shifts in institutional positioning. The technical outlook now points to notable downside risk for Circle as earnings approach, highlighting a need for traders to monitor $76.38 as a critical resistance level and $69.3 as the next support in the event of further declines.

Source of Data: CRCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.