What's behind Novartis's latest 3.3% stock surge?

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Novartis surges 3.33% today on news

Highlights

Novartis raised its 2026 core operating income guidance and projects operating margins near 40% by 2029.
Third quarter 2026 net sales increased 4% with recent approvals, new launches, a $1.9 billion write-down, and the end of the BioArctic partnership.
Novartis stock trades in a bullish structure above key averages, with a 67% probability of moving to the $162.05 to $167.07 range in the next five days.

Core earnings guidance increase offset by Entresto sales and strategic shifts

Novartis raised its full-year 2026 core operating income guidance following a 4% increase in net sales during the third quarter of 2026, and the company now expects operating margins to approach 40% by 2029. The U.S. FDA approved LAMPRENE (clofazimine) on November 3, 2026. While U.S. Entresto sales declined after loss of exclusivity and a $1.9 billion write-down was recognized, Novartis continued to expand through new drug launches and signed a deal with Alteogen valued at up to $3.2 billion for the development of SC biologic products. Novartis also ended its neuroscience collaboration with BioArctic in late 2026.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent rally in Novartis as driven mainly by an upgraded profit outlook and positive headline sentiment. He warns that underlying risks remain, especially after a $1.9 billion write-down and weaker Entresto sales, which could cap further gains. The technical alignment appears bullish, but longer-term trend bias is still bearish, and overbought signals have emerged. Kharitonov notes intraday momentum is dominated by buyers, despite mixed oscillator readings. "Investors should exercise caution, as structural headwinds and technical overheating could trigger a reversal," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Novartis's strong fundamentals and forward-looking upgrades. He believes the bullish structure remains intact, supported by FDA approvals and fresh partnerships that bolster core earnings. The steady operating margin increase and rapid innovation position the company for further growth. Karapetjanc sees ongoing momentum and opportunities for investors as the stock consolidates near session highs. "With robust drug pipelines and upbeat guidance, Novartis remains well positioned for upside," he states.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, views the current price action as fueled by short-term optimism after regulatory news. He cautions that downside risks linger given volatility and mixed oscillator signals, especially with recent losses around Entresto. Dele notes that broader macro uncertainty and technical resistance levels could limit further upside. "Traders should be wary of overstretched valuations in the wake of recent gains," Dele says.

Bullish momentum meets resistance as oscillators warn of overheating

Novartis is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($151.94, $148.48, and $151.98). This positioning reflects a prevailing bullish structure across short, medium, and long-term timeframes. The nearest resistance is at $164.76 and the immediate support is aligned with the week high at $163.97, with moving average alignment confirming that the longer-term trend bias is still bearish. Momentum indicators including the MACD, Average Directional Index (ADX), and Awesome Oscillator support a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI are neutral, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in the overbought zone, indicating a potential overheating risk from this oscillator only. Bull/Bear Power signals that buyers dominate intraday momentum. Intraday volatility stands at 1.60%, and the stock is trading near the session high, with sustained firm tone and strong momentum, although oscillator signals are mixed.

Earlier, analysts noted that Novartis' long-term growth narrative was under scrutiny as the company faced questions over the outlook for new drug launches and the impact of patent expirations. The current bullish structure and momentum reflected in the price action suggest traders should closely monitor the $167.07 resistance level as a potential trigger for continued upside in the short term.

Source of Data: NVS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.