National Grid stock gains almost 2% after first-half profits exceed expectations and guidance raised

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National grid rises 1.8% today

Highlights

National Grid raised its full-year earnings guidance after underlying earnings per share surpassed estimates and pre-tax profit rose 109% to £1.73 billion.
The company reported record first-half capital investment of £6.7 billion, increased its interim dividend by 4% to 16.97p, and reaffirmed its £70 billion five-year capital plan.
Shares of National Grid trade with positive momentum near GBX1,283, with an expected five-day range from GBX1,249 to GBX1,297 as technicals remain overbought, signaling potential for a short-term pullback.

Record capital investment and portfolio gains drive earnings beat

National Grid reported financial results for the first half of its 2026–27 fiscal year, raising its full-year earnings guidance after underlying earnings per share exceeded estimates. Statutory pre-tax profit increased 109% year-over-year to £1.73 billion, mainly due to higher UK electricity transmission revenues and one-off gains from the NG Partners portfolio revaluation. The company also marked a record first-half capital investment of £6.7 billion and raised its interim dividend by 4% to 16.97p per share. National Grid reaffirmed its five-year capital investment plan of at least £70 billion along with targets for annual earnings and dividend growth.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the positive market reaction as driven by a notable earnings beat and higher guidance. He notes the move above key moving averages but remains wary due to prevailing overbought signals and the long-term bearish MA-50/200 alignment. Kharitonov warns that momentum indicators, while strong, are offset by increased downside risk from saturated oscillators. The sharp increase in capital expenditure and a 4% dividend hike may support sentiment but do not resolve underlying technical fragility. "Despite recent outperformance, I believe traders should brace for a corrective pullback as technical exhaustion sets in."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights strong fundamentals behind National Grid’s rally. He points to record capital investments, earnings guidance upgrades, and a rising dividend as proof of management’s growth focus. Karapetjanc believes the stock’s bullish structure remains intact with further upside likely unless key support at GBX1,262 fails. "I see robust opportunities for continued gains as positive newsflow and forward-looking targets drive confidence in National Grid."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains cautious despite the rally. He identifies persistent volatility and overbought readings as warning signs for short-term investors. Dele notes the underlying long-term bearish structure is masked by recent buying enthusiasm. "Investors should approach with care — the risk of a rapid reversal is elevated given today's technical signals."

Momentum stays positive amid overbought risks and bullish bias

National Grid is trading above its 20-day (GBX1,212), 50-day (GBX1,170), and 200-day (GBX1,238) moving averages, reflecting positive momentum in short, medium, and long-term trends. The nearest support sits at GBX1,262, while resistance is found at GBX1,297. The long-term structure remains bearish due to the MA-50 versus MA-200 alignment. Both the MACD and the ADX confirm strong momentum, and ongoing buying interest prevails. However, the RSI and CCI both register in their overbought zones, indicating a heightened risk of a near-term downside correction, while the Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power favors buyers, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with continued upward momentum. The price is near the session high, and intraday volatility is elevated at 1.65%. The intraday tone supports further strength, but overbought risks should be monitored.

Earlier, analysts noted that National Grid maintained a modestly positive technical bias supported by strength across multiple timeframes despite lingering long-term risks. The current combination of stronger-than-expected earnings, a raised guidance, and continued technical momentum adds conviction to this outlook, with traders advised to monitor the GBX1,297 resistance as a potential trigger for renewed upside.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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