Nvidia stock price forecast: $192.94 support in focus as NVDA drops 3.06%

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Nvidia drops 3.06% to $200.37 today

Highlights

Nvidia instructed cloud partners to cap compute allocated to Chinese clients at 49% due to new U.S. export restrictions.
Chinese firms including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance expect fulfillment of only about 1% of RTX Pro 5500 chip orders in the next four months.
Shares of Nvidia fell 3.06% to $200.37 with sellers in control, and the forecasted range is $192.94 to $207.8 with a high probability of further downside.

Data center sales risk as US curbs cloud capacity in China

Nvidia has instructed its global cloud partners to limit future compute capacity allocated to Chinese clients to no more than 49%, following new U.S. export control enforcement, according to TradingKey. This measure curtails Nvidia's access to a significant market and directly restricts its ability to grow data center sales in Greater China. Related compliance directives now require that cloud computing clients allocate at least 51% of capacity to non-Chinese customers, as reported by 247wallst, putting additional constraints on sales flexibility and increasing the risk of ceding market share in the region. These curbs, alongside ongoing supply constraints, have already led Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to expect fulfillment of only about 1% of their RTX Pro 5500 chip orders in the upcoming four months, sharply diminishing near-term demand from key enterprise buyers.

Downside momentum persists as sell signals align with oversold readings

NVDA/USD is currently holding below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 levels, indicating persistent pressure across all primary trend horizons, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $210.94 serves as immediate resistance. Both MACD and ADX are producing sell signals, and Bull/Bear Power shows sellers in control of intraday momentum. The RSI and Stoch RSI are neutral, lacking directional bias, but CCI is in the oversold zone, hinting at a modest potential for a near-term rebound. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, with mixed oscillator signals reflecting uncertain near-term sentiment despite clear downside pressure.

Downside bias dominates as volatility persists near key support

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, NVDA is projected to remain volatile within a range of $192.94 to $207.8. The probability of further downside remains very high, with only minimal chances for a near-term recovery. The baseline scenario is for price to consolidate in a sideways channel near recent lows. Should price decisively close above $210.94 resistance, a short-term upside could emerge, while a break below $192.94 would likely trigger additional downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, leading analyst at Traders Union, sees a challenging outlook for Nvidia as regulatory constraints sharply limit access to the critical Chinese market. Technically, the stock remains under persistent pressure below all key moving averages, with sellers dominating momentum indicators and only moderating signals of potential rebound. He believes further downside is likely unless price reclaims strong resistance at $210.94. "Base case is sideways consolidation near recent lows — with risk clearly tilted to the downside until a convincing breakout develops."

Previously it was reported that Moonshot AI and other Chinese firms were seeking overseas access to Nvidia's advanced chips due to escalating U.S. export controls. The latest compliance measures now force Nvidia's global partners to strictly limit capacity allocated to Chinese clients, significantly tightening export channel loopholes and reinforcing the prevailing risk of additional downside if these restrictions are further intensified.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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