National Grid falls amid rising seller momentum and immediate resistance holding the upside

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National Grid drops 3.15% to GBX1,245

Highlights

National Grid posted a record £6.7 billion interim capital investment, a 33% increase year on year, amid substantial infrastructure upgrades.
Statutory pretax profit more than doubled to £1.73 billion and earnings per share rose 22% to 36.5p, with an upgraded full-year outlook and a 16.97p interim dividend declared.
Shares of National Grid trade below key short- and medium-term moving averages and face seller-dominated momentum, with the price expected to consolidate between GBX1,214 and GBX1,275 in the near term.

Earnings upgrade and record investment contrast with prevailing sell pressure

National Grid reported a record interim capital investment of £6.7 billion for the first half of its financial year, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase and signaling substantial ongoing upgrades to its infrastructure, according to Investing.com. The company saw statutory pretax profit more than double to £1.73 billion for the period ended September 30, 2026, driven by higher regulated revenues and increased investment, as noted by Yahoo Finance. Underlying earnings per share rose 22% to 36.5 pence, leading to an upgraded full-year earnings outlook, while the board declared a 16.97p interim dividend and reaffirmed its intention to grow dividends in line with UK CPIH, as reported by Gurufocus. All these operational and financial milestones demonstrate robust business performance, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical momentum as short-term weakness meets long-term support

NG is trading below both the MA-20 at GBX1,273 and MA-50 at GBX1,260 on the hourly chart, but remains above the long-term MA-200 at GBX1,239. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at GBX1,268, acting as immediate resistance. Intraday sellers dominate as reflected by Bull/Bear Power at -14.83, while the MACD signals strong buy momentum. ADX shows selling signals, and both the RSI and CCI are neutral, while Stoch RSI is oversold. These mixed signals highlight a divergence between short-term momentum and trend-following indicators.

Range-bound outlook as downside risk edges higher

Over the coming days, the typical volatility band for NG is GBX1,214 to GBX1,275. Price is statistically more likely (55%) to move downward, while the probability of an upward move is 45%. The baseline scenario points to sideways consolidation within this range. A breakout above resistance at GBX1,268 would open the door for a bullish leg, whereas a drop below support at GBX1,239 would likely trigger further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees National Grid's operational performance as fundamentally strong. He believes the recent surge in capital investment and better-than-expected earnings fundamentals support long-term value. However, short-term price action remains under pressure, with sellers dominating below key moving averages. Momentum signals are promising, but consolidation may persist until a decisive breakout. "If GBX1,239 support holds, I expect sentiment to gradually improve as investors refocus on the company's robust earnings and dividend growth story."

Earlier, analysts noted that National Grid’s strong operational performance and upgraded outlook were supporting a generally positive long-term trend, balanced by overbought risks and near-term consolidation. The current breakdown below short- and medium-term moving averages adds a new dimension, with the key level to watch now at GBX1,239, as a breach could signal a shift toward further downside.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.