DAX drops as sellers take control and weak momentum persists

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DAX slides 2.02% to 25,657 today

Highlights

The DAX trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating sustained bearish pressure in the near term.
Most indicators show deep oversold conditions and negative momentum, but a rebound cannot yet be confirmed.
Price stands at 25,657, down 2.02%, with the next 2 to 3 days expected to see a range of 25,399 to 25,915 and a 74% probability of further downside.

Bearish momentum confirmed as oversold signals build

On the hourly chart, DAX is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at 26,174 acts as immediate resistance. Key momentum indicators — MACD and ADX — both confirm a bearish technical setup. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are in verified oversold zones, suggesting that while intraday sellers are dominant and Bull/Bear Power remains negative, the deep oversold readings may support a short-term rebound scenario. The Awesome Oscillator reinforces prevailing negative momentum, highlighting a divergence between continued price weakness and technical oversold signals.

Sideways bias at risk as range narrows amid volatility

Over the next two to three trading days, the expected price range for DAX is between 25,399 and 25,915, in line with typical volatility. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement within this corridor, with a 74% probability of a downside scenario and a 26% probability of a rebound. Should the index reclaim the Ichimoku Kijun resistance at 26,174, a recovery could develop. Conversely, a sustained break below 25,399 would likely extend the current decline.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the DAX locked in a technically driven decline with indicators overwhelmingly bearish. There is no news flow to counteract the negative momentum. Oversold signals may spark a short-term rebound, but as long as the index stays below the Ichimoku Kijun at 26,174, the risk remains to the downside. "Base case remains sideways to lower — unless DAX reclaims 26,174, buyers stay on the defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that the DAX was maintaining strong bullish momentum supported by persistent buying above key moving averages. The current analysis signals a marked shift in technical posture, with bearish momentum now prevailing and puts focus on whether the oversold conditions can fuel a short-term rebound from present levels.

Source of Data: DAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.