Strong intraday bounce and volatile trading drive Nasdaq 100 higher by almost 3%

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Nasdaq 100 surges 2.6% today

Highlights

Nasdaq 100 trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure.
Technical indicators including MACD, ADX, and the Awesome Oscillator show sustained bearish momentum, with neutral readings from oscillators like RSI and CCI.
The forecast five-day range is 27,756 to 29,168, with over 80% probability of a downward move unless 28,813 resistance is cleared.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that while the Nasdaq 100 staged a sharp intraday rebound, technical conditions remain fragile. He highlights that the index is still held below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with mixed to negative momentum and no news catalyst to support sustained upside. Kharitonov points to persistent intraday selling pressure as measured by the MACD and oscillator readings. He remains skeptical of the rebound, warning that price action is likely to stay under downward pressure. "Until we see a convincing breakout above 28,813 or a clear shift in underlying sentiment, traders should be prepared for renewed downside and strong volatility."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Nasdaq 100’s resilience above the 200-day trendline as reinforcing the bullish structure. He emphasizes that the longer-term positive trend remains intact, despite short-term volatility and lack of major news. Karapetjanc remains constructive, viewing current consolidation as an accumulation phase with opportunity for upward extension if resistance at 28,813 is breached. "With market structure robust and volatility providing tradable ranges, further growth is expected once the index confirms strength above resistance."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, takes a scenario-driven approach to the Nasdaq 100’s volatile rebound. He notes that the current technical setup suggests a possible range trade between 28,450 and 28,813, in line with typical volatility bands. Mehta highlights tactical trade ideas such as looking for a breakout entry should the index close above resistance or considering defensive plays if support fails. "A reversal toward 27,756 can’t be ruled out, but a decisive move above 28,813 would mark an important shift in momentum."

Bearish momentum persists despite long-term uptrend support

The index is trading below its 20-day (28,813) and 50-day (29,568) moving averages, indicating that sellers continue to exert short- and medium-term pressure. However, with the current price of 28,462 above the 200-day moving average (28,005) and a bullish alignment between the 50-day and 200-day averages, the longer-term trend remains positive. Key resistance is at 28,813, while immediate support sits at 28,450. Momentum signals are mixed to negative, with both MACD and ADX pointing to persistent bearish momentum. Oscillators including RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI remain neutral, with no signals for overbought or oversold conditions. Negative readings from Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator indicate intraday selling remains strong, though price action is near intraday session highs and volatility is elevated at 1.24%, highlighting strong short-term price swings.

Previously it was reported that the Nasdaq-100 remains a leading benchmark for investors seeking exposure to innovative, high-growth sectors within the U.S. large-cap equity space. The latest technical signals point to a market at a critical juncture, making a decisive move above 28,813 or below 28,450 the key development to watch in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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