Costco shares weekly forecast: $4 billion buyback bolsters outlook with correction risk rising near highs

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Costco rises 3.11% this week

Highlights

Shares of Costco closed the week at $1,086, rising $32.81 over seven days and finishing at the top of the recent range.
The stock trades with a strong uptrend and consistent buying momentum, but major indicators register overbought conditions and warn of potential correction risk.
Key support stands at $1,045 and resistance at $1,091, with the coming week's expected range at $1,066 to $1,132 and a 79% probability of further gains.

Special dividend and new buyback boost confidence amid robust cash flows

Costco revealed a special cash dividend of $30 per share, payable on December 4, 2026, to shareholders of record as of November 24, 2026, according to GlobeNewswire. The company also reauthorized a $4 billion share repurchase program that will extend through January 2030, replacing the previous plan, as confirmed by Yahoo Finance. These moves underline Costco’s robust cash generation and continued business strength heading into the week.

Overbought readings deepen as technicals warn of near-term correction risk

On the daily chart, the uptrend remains intact with momentum characterized by a sustained move higher and firm trend. RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all register in their respective overbought zones (RSI 72.08; CCI 151.51; Stoch RSI 98.71), signaling possible overheating and a risk of downside correction rather than guaranteed further gains. MACD and ADX both align with the underlying trend and point to continued buying pressure, while Bull/Bear Power also signals an overbought state. Immediate resistance stands at $1,091, which has confined the price at the top of the current weekly range, while $1,045 serves as nearby support; the volatility over the past 7 days is 4.37%.

Breakout risk rises next week as resistance and upside range come into play

Next week, the expected range is $1,066 to $1,132, with a 79% probability of an increase versus a 21% likelihood of a pullback. The base case calls for sustained trading between support at $1,045 and resistance at $1,091, barring a breakout. A close above $1,091 could open room for further upside toward $1,132, while a drop below $1,045 would raise the risk of a correction toward the lower end of the projected range.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that shares of Costco are trading near $1,086 after a 3% weekly rise, with momentum looking stretched but sentiment underpinned by robust news flow. The special $30 per share dividend and $4 billion buyback highlight Costco’s strong capital return story, fueling optimism during the week. However, daily chart signals show RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI deep in overbought territory, hinting at risks of a near-term consolidation. Immediate resistance at $1,091 and support at $1,045 are critical for the upcoming week’s direction, as volatility remains elevated at 4.37%. Turakhiya expects a base case of sideways trading unless there is a decisive break above $1,091 or a drop below $1,045. "Momentum traders need to tread carefully here — while the news is strong, I’m only chasing further upside if we see a clean close above $1,091."

Previously it was reported that analysts remained bullish on Costco’s shares citing both business quality and supportive corporate actions such as special dividends. The latest technical readings add a cautionary note, suggesting traders should monitor for a possible consolidation phase, with focus on a sustained close above $1,091 as a signal for renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.