Coinbase stock price prediction: Seller pressure persists amid weaker revenue and cautious outlook

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Coinbase drops 3.73% to $131.21 today

Highlights

Coinbase secured final approval from the OCC for a national trust bank charter, expanding its federal crypto custody services.
Coinbase reported third-quarter 2026 revenue down 35% year over year to $1.22 billion and transaction revenue down 44% to $590 million.
Shares of Coinbase trade below key moving averages with strong selling pressure and are expected to consolidate between $126.64 and $137.06 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Regulatory expansion offsets by weak revenue and market pressure

Coinbase has received final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust bank charter, enabling the firm to expand its federal crypto custody services and transition institutional custody accounts under national oversight, according to Coinpaper. While this regulatory milestone broadens Coinbase's service scope, negative sentiment is reinforced by its third-quarter 2026 revenue falling 35% year over year to $1.22 billion and a 44% decline in transaction revenue to $590 million, reflecting weaker trading volumes. The company's recent rollout of enhanced trading controls, reported by Coinfomania, addresses platform security and operational risk but has not offset the prevailing market pressure.

Technical resistance holds as momentum remains fragile

COIN/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $135, MA-50 at $139.27, and MA-200 at $174.8, with the Ichimoku Kijun presenting immediate resistance at $134.58. Momentum indicators show a strong MACD Sell and neutral ADX, while the RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI remain neutral. Although intraday Bull/Bear Power stands at 0.63, tilting briefly toward buyers, persistent mixed signals among major oscillators underscore fragile sentiment.

Consolidation expected as downside risk outweighs upside

Over the next 2–3 trading days, COIN is expected to remain within a range of $126.64 to $137.06. There is a 35% probability of an upward move, while the probability of a further decline stands at 65%. The baseline scenario calls for price consolidation within this band; a sustained breakout above $134.58 would mark a bullish shift, whereas a drop below $126.64 is likely to trigger further selling.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that Coinbase's OCC charter approval is a critical regulatory achievement with long-term strategic value. He believes the stock remains under pressure in the short term due to declining revenues and mixed technical signals, despite product improvements in trading controls. Karapetjanc sees fragile sentiment as the main obstacle to immediate recovery, but holds a positive bias on regulatory clarity boosting institutional trust. "If COIN can stabilize above $134.58, I expect market confidence will begin to recover, especially given its strengthened regulatory standing."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase launched a limited-time Bitcoin redeemable offer for eligible US customers with active accounts. The current analysis adds a regulatory dimension by highlighting Coinbase's new national trust bank charter, and traders should monitor the $134.58 resistance for early indications of a potential breakout.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.