Global Markets and Currency Strategy by Axel Merk
Axel Merk: Bank of Canada raises rates, cites higher inflation risk and improved outlook
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates today, with Governor Tiff Macklem stating that inflation risk has increased due to higher energy prices and the economic outlook has improved as a result ...
Changing drivers impact gold prices amid risk-off moves, Axel Merk notes
Gold's price moves can be challenging to interpret in real time, according to Axel Merk. He observed that late in the week, shifting drivers contributed to an environment where bonds rallied and ...
Axel Merk: WSJ outlines social security reform proposals including changing tax cap and retirement age
The Wall Street Journal's Richard Rubin has listed several proposals to reform social security, including increasing the retirement age, ending or raising the tax cap, and lowering benefit ...
Raising rates may be misguided in a supply shock, Bloomberg guest suggests
A Bloomberg guest has suggested that raising interest rates is a mistake when facing a supply shock, arguing that the Federal Reserve is not engaging in a sledgehammer hiking cycle but rather ...
Axel Merk: October rate hike expectations moved above 50% after CPI release
Expectations for a potential U.S. interest rate hike in October briefly rose above 50% following the release of stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index data, before easing slightly. Axel ...
Nobel Prize link to Friedman over Keynes explored, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk described the Nobel Prize in economics awarded to Woodford and Hall as having much to do with Milton Friedman and little to do with John Maynard Keynes. Merk provided this context to ...
Axel Merk: France’s reliance on short-term debt markets raises concerns
Axel Merk draws attention to France’s use of short-term debt markets as a solution for excessive debt. Merk questions what could go wrong with this approach, suggesting that heavy reliance on ...
Bonds outside U.S. face pressure as cracks appear in Europe, Axel Merk writes
Axel Merk draws attention to ongoing turbulence in global bond markets. He contrasts the bond rout occurring in the U.S., where significant investments are underway, with challenges in French, ...
Axel Merk: Fed officials signal one more hike possible this year but stress no urgency
Axel Merk highlights that recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials share a common message: while one more rate hike may still be on the table for this year, there is no sense of urgency. ...
Gold experiences cycles of volatility and stability, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk addresses whether the recent volatility in gold is typical, referencing a Bloomberg Radio guest who disagrees with that view. Merk explains that gold tends to cycle between periods of ...
Axel Merk: Book on 1929 explores human side of famous market figures
Axel Merk discusses completing Andrew Ross Sorkin's book titled '1929,' which delves into the human stories behind the pivotal year in financial history. Merk highlights the book's exploration ...
Lagarde downplays 500 million euro FX intervention, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk comments on the European Central Bank press conference, where ECB President Christine Lagarde was asked about foreign exchange intervention. Lagarde responded by declining to comment and ...
Axel Merk: Gold and oil see positive correlation as market shifts focus
Axel Merk observes that gold and oil prices are both rising, indicating a change from their usual negative correlation. He points out that this development is particularly notable as it occurs ...
Doubling economy requires less policy interference, Axel Merk argues
Axel Merk addresses the challenge of doubling the economy by referencing Adam Smith's principles. He suggests that much of current policy poses obstacles to economic expansion and implies that ...
Axel Merk: Waller hints at holding rates if inflation slowdown confirmed
Axel Merk comments that Federal Reserve Governor Waller appears willing to hold interest rates if upcoming data confirms a sustained decline in inflation. Merk points out that while Waller is ...
Wells Fargo promotes personal loans for wedding expenses, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk draws attention to Wells Fargo's practice of promoting personal loans for wedding costs directly on its login page. The tweet questions whether this approach is appropriate, implicitly ...
Axel Merk: Warsh sees recent inflation data insufficient to signal lower price pressures
Axel Merk highlights that Warsh remains unconvinced by recent inflation figures, suggesting inflation is not declining quickly enough. Merk explains that this perspective raises the likelihood ...
Reaction functions such as the Taylor rule work better in theory, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk questions the practicality of using reaction functions such as the Taylor rule to understand the economy. He observes that while these models work better in controlled environments, ...
Axel Merk: Gold price jumped after Treasury Twist announcement
Axel Merk highlights that the price of gold surged when the Treasury Twist was announced. He adds that Bessent emphasizes the signaling effect, suggesting that those purchasing gold shared this ...
China aims for greater trade currency relevance, Axel Merk notes
Axel Merk highlights China's strategic interest in making its currency more central to international trade by developing the necessary infrastructure. He comments that such efforts might not ...
Axel Merk: FOMC minutes highlight uncertainty over U.S. inflation risks
Axel Merk shares insights from the latest FOMC minutes, highlighting that many participants noted the possibility of more persistently elevated inflation. The minutes indicate that committee ...
