U.S. Economy and Policy Analysis by Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk: Real GDP rises on consumer spending and federal outlays
Real GDP surged over the summer period, supported by increases in consumer spending, data center activity, inventories, and double-digit federal spending on both defense and non-defense outlays. ...
Fed displays caution instead of conviction before pause, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk commented that the Federal Reserve is acting with caution ahead of an expected pause in rate hikes next week. She contrasted this approach with the Fed's more decisive stance in 2022 ...
Diane Swonk: Services inflation remains persistent as benefit costs and healthcare prices rise
Diane Swonk stated that services inflation continues to be persistent, with benefit costs being passed along and eroding wage gains. She also noted that inflation in healthcare is ...
Labor shortages may drive up wages for remaining workers, Diane Swonk notes
Labor shortages are emerging in certain sectors and are having significant effects, according to Diane Swonk. She adds that the expansion of data centers is aggravating the situation by creating ...
Diane Swonk: Federal Reserve expected to skip October rate hike
The Federal Reserve is expected to skip a rate hike in October. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized the goal of cooling inflation at the margins without causing undo pain in the labor ...
Retail sales rise 0.8% in September, Diane Swonk notes
U.S. retail sales increased by 0.8% in September after an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in August, but inflation accounted for much of the headline growth. Diane Swonk said sales excluding autos and ...
Diane Swonk: Poll finds baby boomers report greater confidence managing debt than other groups
A new survey by Principal Financial Group, as reported by Sharon Epperson, found that 53% of baby boomers said they felt able to manage their debt, compared with 42% of a comparative group. Diane ...
FOMC minutes show internal debate over rate hikes, Diane Swonk reveals
Diane Swonk reports that the FOMC September minutes show a major debate within the Federal Reserve about the timing and number of necessary rate hikes. Swonk highlights that Warsh gained ...
Diane Swonk: Shift from home buying to rentals drives strong apartment demand
Diane Swonk observes that the transition from home buying to rentals has intensified, with a delayed impact expected in pricing measures. According to Swonk, there has been extraordinary ...
Only 29,000 jobs created amid tepid wage growth, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk highlights that the latest jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs created for the month, with wage gains remaining tepid. Losses in local government employment contributed to the weak ...
Diane Swonk: Global bond market faces intensified selloff beyond inflation concerns
Diane Swonk highlights that the global bond rout is gaining momentum and suggests that factors beyond inflation are driving the selloff. She points out that bond vigilantes, investors who ...
U.S. CBO reveals income gains for all strata in 2023, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk highlights recent discussions about a new U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study showing that incomes improved across all income levels through 2023. Swonk notes that the CBO ...
Diane Swonk: Financial markets anticipate further rate hikes ahead of Fed decisions
Diane Swonk highlights that financial markets are now pricing in additional rate hikes before the Federal Reserve takes formal action. This development creates a challenge for the central bank, ...
Core PCE has risen above core CPI in U.S., Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk highlights a notable shift in the relationship between two key measures of U.S. inflation: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. She ...
Diane Swonk: Export bans on diesel raise risk of higher U.S. prices
Diane Swonk highlights growing concerns that export bans on diesel are becoming increasingly likely. Swonk notes that current research does not offer reassurance, and warns that any short-term ...
Chicago Fed addresses concerns about dot plot direction, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk highlights an important caveat from the Chicago Fed regarding the interpretation of the dot plot by participants at the Federal Reserve meeting. She notes that concerns have been ...
Diane Swonk: Inflation shocks are becoming normal and destabilizing
Diane Swonk warns that economic shocks are increasingly becoming the norm, with inflation lingering for more than five years. She observes that rising prices are affecting both prices and ...
Payroll employment climbs to 163K with public education gains, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk points out that a summer heatwave influenced the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, as payroll employment surpassed expectations with an increase of 163K jobs. Public sector education ...
Diane Swonk: PCE price index shows persistent inflation concerns
Diane Swonk highlights comments from Warsh regarding ongoing inflation concerns in the U.S. economy. Warsh points to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the 12-month change in the ...
Taylor Rule shows Fed rate too low for 2% inflation, Diane Swonk notes
Diane Swonk highlights that the Atlanta Fed’s application of the Taylor Rule—one method to gauge if short-term interest rates are sufficient to return inflation to 2 percent—shows the ...
Diane Swonk: Bond market rout highlights trust risk for new Fed chair
Diane Swonk highlights that markets respond not just to promises but to evidence. This week’s bond market turmoil, she explains, was driven by concerns over trust rather than any single data ...
