Macro Economics, Markets, and Strategy by Luke Gromen
U.S. oil exported for USDs despite printing ability, Luke Gromen writes
Luke Gromen, founder, president, macroeconomic analyst, investor at FFTT, LLC (Forest for the Trees), raises a provocative question about U.S. oil exports. He questions why the U.S. would export ...
Luke Gromen: Two possible paths ahead for the global economy after World War II
Luke Gromen, founder, president, macroeconomic analyst, investor at FFTT, LLC (Forest for the Trees), outlined two potential paths for the world economy. He suggests that the next steps can either ...
Gold weaponized by China and U.S. for multiple purposes, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen, founder, president, macroeconomic analyst, investor at FFTT, LLC (Forest for the Trees), notes that gold has historically been weaponized for different purposes and, in recent years, ...
Luke Gromen: MSG Knicks/Spurs ticket prices show USD inflation from 1999 to 2026
Luke Gromen, founder, president, macroeconomic analyst, investor at FFTT, LLC (Forest for the Trees), compares tickets from the 1999 and 2026 NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden for the ...
Market crises moved from stocks to USD in recent decades, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen analyzes how major financial crises have shifted across different markets over time. He observes that the crash in 2000 impacted equities, the 2008 crisis affected the U.S. Treasury ...
Luke Gromen: China reopens gold window in 3q14 with Russia's help
Luke Gromen discusses how China reopened the gold window in 3q14 with assistance from Russia, particularly through the use of CNY for oil transactions, without permission from Washington. He ...
Losing jobs and homes could spark banking turmoil, Luke Gromen warns
Luke Gromen points to a potential scenario where workers who currently perceive themselves as high-value due to their paychecks might experience large-scale job loss. He further suggests that ...
Luke Gromen: SPX all-time high versus gold reveals currency and inflation divergence
Luke Gromen examines the current divergence between the S&P 500 index reaching an all-time high and consumer sentiment hitting an all-time low. He suggests that when the S&P 500 is priced in ...
China acquires U.S. defense assets on the cheap as capital is lost on U.S. Treasuries, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, comments on the current state of dollar dominance, suggesting it means China is acquiring the U.S. defense industrial base at low valuations. He also notes that ...
Luke Gromen: Dow down 45 percent against gold since March 1972
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, draws attention to the long-term performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) against gold as a benchmark of value since March 1972. He notes that ...
Commodities surge while intermodal weakens in U.S. rail traffic, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, reports a notable divergence in U.S. rail traffic trends. Commodities and industrials, representing 45% of carloads, are performing strongly year to date, while ...
Luke Gromen: U.S. industrial sector faced prolonged recession after Asia crisis
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, recounts how industrial company managements during the Southeast Asia crisis downplayed Asia-Pacific exposure as just 5% of sales early on. He explains that ...
Offshore USD holdings challenge swap line necessity, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, questions the necessity of U.S. dollar swap lines for countries with large existing USD deposits offshore, such as the UAE. He draws an analogy to an individual ...
Luke Gromen: Gold may need to rise 2-3x to mean revert if blocs reemerge
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, comments on the potential impact of a global shift back to economic blocs. He highlights that gold is currently one of the cheapest assets relative to historical ...
Germany faces output challenges during oil shock, jessefelder notes
jessefelder, industry influencer, challenges current views regarding Germany's output during the 2022 oil and energy shock as well as the assumption that the global economy can manage without ...
Luke Gromen: CIPS payments more than doubled and gold surged after U.S. action in 2022
Luke Gromen, industry influencer, highlights the impact of weaponizing U.S. dollar swap lines and previous actions involving the U.S. financial system. He points out that after the U.S. froze ...
Manufacturing investment threatened by cheap dollar support, Eric Basmajian warns
Eric Basmajian, industry influencer, raises concerns about potential de-industrialization in the U.S. if so-called permanent swap lines are not extended to the defense industrial base. Basmajian ...
Luke Gromen: U.S. grants swap lines to UAE to prevent disorderly sale of assets
Luke Gromen highlighted a recent exchange between U.S. Secretary Bessent and officials from the United Arab Emirates. According to Gromen, the UAE had threatened to price oil and gas sales in CNY ...
S&P 500 gains sharply in dollar terms but falls against gold since 3Q 2002, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen highlights a significant divergence in asset performance since the bottom of the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2002. According to Gromen, while the S&P 500 total return has climbed ...
Luke Gromen: Henry Paulson flags potential for vicious U.S. bond crash in 2026
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has flagged the potential for a 'vicious' crash in U.S. bonds, according to comments cited by Bloomberg on April 16, 2026. The timing of this statement ...
U.S. crime prosecutions and treasury futures signal long-term bear trends, Luke Gromen notes
Luke Gromen compares two long-term trends since 1986: U.S. white collar crime prosecutions, which have been in a 30-year bear market and declined 80% over the past 15 years, and long-term U.S. ...
