Economic Policy and Public Debate by Mike Konczal
Low share of items with over 3% inflation growth draws renewed attention, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal raised the issue of why inflation has not increased and broadened in the past year, highlighting a recent discussion about the percentage of items with at least 3% growth remaining ...
Mike Konczal: NK macro framework better fit for 2021–2023 inflation shocks
Mike Konczal argued that the New Keynesian macroeconomic framework, which he describes as poorly suited for the Great Recession, was better suited to navigating the inflation shocks of 2021–2023 ...
51000 jobs gained and steady 4.1 percent unemployment, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal highlights that 51000 jobs have been added over the past three months, with the U.S. unemployment rate remaining steady around 4.1 percent. He points out that while these employment ...
Mike Konczal: 10th percentile real wage growth worse than during peak 2022 inflation
Mike Konczal draws attention to the current state of 10th percentile real wage growth. He observes that those at the lower end of the wage distribution are experiencing slower real wage increases ...
Higher rates seen as counter to deficit and AI sector trends, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal highlights the role of higher interest rates in addressing two key economic drivers: the federal deficit and the competitive dynamics among AI hyperscalers. He points out that both ...
Mike Konczal: Regulatory changes after financial crisis raised concerns about small banks
Mike Konczal addresses ongoing debates following the financial crisis regarding regulation of Wall Street and the largest banks. He highlights concerns that higher capital requirements may have ...
CPI remains well below PCE, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal points out that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently at historically low levels compared to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the measure more closely ...
Mike Konczal: Labor market adds 71k jobs monthly as core PCE hits 3 percent
Mike Konczal highlights recent trends in the U.S. labor market, noting an average gain of 71,000 jobs per month over the past three months, accompanied by an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. Core ...
30-year Treasury rises to 5.2% but trails 1999-2000 high of 5.9%, Mike Konczal points out
Mike Konczal observes that the current 30-year Treasury rate, which has risen to approximately 5.2%, is still significantly lower than the 5.9% level seen during the high-growth years of 1999 and ...
Mike Konczal: Job openings outnumber unemployed compared to 2025 situation
Mike Konczal compares the current labor market to 2025, stating that job openings now outnumber the unemployed. He observes that this shift appears to be driven by developments affecting both ...
Inflation debate centers on CPI versus PCE, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal raises a critical question about inflation measurement that he believes is overlooked in broader discussions. He examines whether inflation should be evaluated using the Consumer ...
Mike Konczal: Software weighting in CPI and PCE poses practical implications
Mike Konczal discusses the complexities in measuring software within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) versus the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the practical outcomes that can ...
OBBBA led to deficit surge and major spending cuts, Mike Konczal argues
Mike Konczal criticizes the OBBBA, describing it as a genuinely terrible law that worsened the outlook for the $30-year Treasury and the broader deficit. Konczal notes that policymakers missed ...
Mike Konczal: Access to key affordability data on U.S. food prices and state rent burdens
Mike Konczal highlights the availability of key affordability data, including average food prices from BLS for products like coffee and beef, as well as state-level Census information on rent ...
Wage growth offset by 3.9% inflation, Mike Konczal argues
Mike Konczal challenges the claim that wages are rising for Americans across the income distribution. He points out that the reported nominal wage increases become negative for the 75th ...
Mike Konczal: CPI inflation does not capture short-term premium spikes
Mike Konczal draws attention to how Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation does not effectively reflect recent spikes in premiums, especially over the short term. His observation suggests that ...
Fed dot plot more hawkish than presser, Mike Konczal argues
Mike Konczal questions whether the recent increase in interest rates was due to the Federal Reserve stepping back during its June press conference, or rather the more hawkish dot plot released at ...
Mike Konczal: U.S. unemployment rate returns to pre-rise levels
Mike Konczal highlights that the small 0.3% rise in the U.S. unemployment rate observed a year ago has now fully reversed. He notes that the latest figures bring the rate much closer to 2024 ...
Brooksley Born was sidelined over OTC derivatives issues, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal points out that Brooksley Born's early warnings about OTC derivatives were largely centered on credit default swaps, which he describes as closely resembling insurance and posing ...
Mike Konczal: Contrasting Warsh's FOMC approach with Michael Woodford's economic thought
Mike Konczal contrasts Kevin Warsh's first press conference at the Federal Open Market Committee with decades of economic thought by Michael Woodford. He highlights varying interpretations of ...
Predictability of monetary policy was key at Fed, Mike Konczal notes
Mike Konczal highlights insights from 2005, when Federal Reserve economist William Poole identified four key characteristics of Alan Greenspan's leadership at the U.S. central bank. According to ...
