U.S. humanoid robot output seen reaching 400,000 by 2030, J.P. Morgan says
Growing automation demand in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing is accelerating expectations for humanoid robot deployment in the U.S. J.P. Morgan says the industry is moving beyond demonstrations toward commercial use, with production projected at 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and about 1.5 million by 2035.
Highlights
- J.P. Morgan projects U.S. humanoid robot production to reach 400,000 units by 2030 amid labor shortages, cost parity, and expanded automation.
- Annual customer savings per deployed humanoid robot could reach $100,000, but near-term adoption remains limited by supply constraints in hands, actuators, brains, and production capacity.
- The market for humanoid robot components like actuators, motors, and vision systems could approach $30 billion by 2035, benefitting suppliers such as Timken, Robotis, Leader Drive, Orbbec, and Cognex.
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Commercial rollout gains momentum
As reported by Reuters, J.P. Morgan says labor shortages, improving economics and rising production capacity are supporting wider humanoid robot adoption as companies seek to automate repetitive work.The brokerage estimates that humanoid robot costs are nearing parity with labor costs, while multi-shift deployment could generate about $100,000 in annual savings per customer. It says near-term progress remains constrained by supply bottlenecks in hands, actuators, the brain and production capacity.
J.P. Morgan identifies Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's Figure robots and Apptronik's Apollo among the main U.S. humanoid platforms as deployment expands.
Component suppliers seen as early beneficiaries
J.P. Morgan says component suppliers present the largest near-term opportunity as the humanoid market scales, with demand building for parts including actuators, motors and vision systems.The brokerage expects the market for those key components to approach $30 billion by 2035. It favors suppliers including Timken, Robotis, Leader Drive, Orbbec and Cognex, while expecting value creation over time to shift toward robot makers and platform integrators.
In earlier coverage, we examined Nasdaq 100 volatility driven by AI supply chain concerns and higher financing costs in tech stocks.
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