WTI continues to advance as traders price in a higher probability of prolonged supply disruptions following the latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran. Concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to the forefront after renewed military action and restrictions affecting maritime traffic, reinforcing the geopolitical risk premium across global energy markets.
Since roughly one fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait, any disruption has an immediate impact on crude prices and inflation expectations.
Supply outlook remains highly uncertain
While geopolitical tensions are supporting prices, the broader supply picture remains mixed. The IEA's latest Oil Market Report notes that global production recovered during June as Gulf exports partially resumed, but renewed hostilities have once again increased uncertainty over future supply flows. At the same time, OPEC has lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth, reflecting weaker economic activity, while producers outside traditional OPEC quotas continue to expand output. These factors may eventually limit further upside once geopolitical risks begin to ease.
U.S. fundamentals remain constructive
The macro backdrop continues to provide additional support for crude. U.S. commercial inventories remain below year-ago levels after a series of inventory draws, indicating that physical demand remains relatively resilient despite slowing global growth. Investors are also closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve guidance, as higher oil prices could complicate expectations for monetary policy by keeping inflationary pressures elevated for longer.
Technical outlook turns increasingly bullish
The hourly chart shows WTI extending its strong recovery after rebounding from the area below $70. Price has now broken decisively above its short, medium, and long-term moving averages, confirming a significant improvement in momentum. The market is currently testing resistance around the $81 to $82 region, where some profit taking could emerge after the recent rally. However, as long as WTI remains above the breakout area near $78, the technical structure, as written in WTI rebounds as Middle East tensions revive supply concerns, continues to favor the bulls, with buyers maintaining control despite elevated volatility driven by geopolitical headlines.
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