Will coffee price avoid deeper losses as sellers dominate short-term trend?

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Coffee trades flat today at USX313.55

Highlights

KC/USX remains under persistent selling pressure across all timeframes, staying below key moving averages.
Bearish momentum dominates as key indicators signal oversold conditions and sellers remain in control today.
Price is expected to trade between 305.9 and 321.2 with a 74% likelihood of further decline barring a reversal above 323.46.

Sustained selling momentum amid volatility and technical divergence

On the technical front, KC/USX continues to trade below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe, and remains under the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is positioned at the Ichimoku Kijun level of USX323.46. MACD shows a sell indication and ADX signals a neutral trend, while RSI points to a sell condition. Both CCI and Bull/Bear Power indicate an oversold market with dominant sellers. The Stoch RSI, however, diverges and signals a strong buy, while the Awesome Oscillator supports further downside. Price action is marked by high intraday volatility and a negative gap relative to the last close.

Downside favored as volatility shapes short-term price range

In the near term, KC is projected to trade within the USX305.9 to USX321.2 band as volatility persists. The probability of an upward move stands at 26%, while a downward move is estimated at 74%, making further declines more likely than a reversal. The baseline scenario foresees price consolidating within this volatility range. A move above USX323.46 could signal a momentum reversal, whereas a decisive drop below USX305.9 could reinforce downward pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the technical outlook for Coffee as weak and dominated by sellers. He notes that KC stays firmly below key moving averages and that downside risk prevails, with a 74% chance of further declines. Volatility remains high, and indicators confirm bearish momentum despite some signals diverging. "Unless KC breaks back above USX323.46, I remain defensive and see little reason to anticipate a reversal here."

Previously it was reported that coffee prices were experiencing mixed technical signals, with consolidation likely but the risk of renewed downside emerging. The current analysis reinforces a more bearish outlook, highlighting that sustained trading below the MA-200 and weak momentum indicators increase the risk of a further decline if support at USX305.9 is breached.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.