Purdue-CME farm sentiment index rebounds in July as producer outlook improves

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Purdue-CME farm sentiment rebound

Highlights

The Purdue-CME Ag Economy Barometer survey shows the Current Conditions Index up 20 points to 122 and Future Expectations Index up 11 points to 129 in July.
The Farm Capital Investment Index rebounds to 50 after a three-month decline, despite only 13% of surveyed producers reporting improved finances versus a year ago.
Short- and long-term farmland value expectations indexes drop by 6 and 14 points respectively in July, as 46% of farmers cite high input costs as their top concern.

July survey shows stronger sentiment and investment outlook

As reported by CME Group and Purdue University in the July Ag Economy Barometer release distributed via PRNewswire, the Current Conditions Index rises 20 points to 122 and the Future Expectations Index increases 11 points to 129. The survey of 405 farmers nationwide is conducted from July 13 to July 17.

The Farm Capital Investment Index also reverses a three-month slide, reaching 50 in July. While most producers say their financial position has not improved over the past year, 13% report being better off than a year earlier and nearly one-quarter expect their operation's financial position to improve over the next 12 months.

Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture, says stronger crop prices during the survey period likely help lift both farmer sentiment and the investment index. He says producers still face high input costs and uncertainty over future crop and livestock prices, while interest in marketing education points to demand for tools to manage a more volatile pricing environment.

Costs, rents and exports shape the agricultural outlook

High input costs remain the leading concern for 46% of respondents, while 30% identify crop or livestock prices as the biggest challenge to success over the next five to 10 years. Farm transition ranks next at 17%, followed by cost control at 16%, with financial considerations and weather each at 13%, trade at 7% and government policy at 3%.

These concerns also influence educational priorities, with 44% of producers naming marketing as the top need in risk management education, well ahead of financial and strategic risk management. As cash rent negotiations approach, most corn, soybean, wheat and cotton growers in the survey expect rental rates to stay stable in 2027, while 19% expect increases and 7% foresee declines.

Producers remain cautiously optimistic about U.S. agricultural exports, with 42% expecting exports to increase over the next five years and 56% saying new foreign markets for U.S. farm goods are likely to open. At the same time, optimism is cooler than a year earlier, and views on farmland values soften in July as the short-term farmland value expectations index falls 6 points to 118 and the long-term index declines 14 points to 152.

In our earlier coverage of fresh U.S. economic data for 2026, we outlined how the economy was still expanding, supported by solid consumer spending, strong business investment, and steady hiring. We also noted that easing core inflation was helping the outlook, even as uncertainty around energy prices and interest rates continued to cloud expectations for the months ahead.

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