Copper price forecast: Bulls eye $6.725 resistance as HG holds near $6.61

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Copper edges up 0.04% to $6.60 today

Highlights

Copper's recent price rally is driven by tightening physical supply, supporting continued robust interest from traders and end-users.
Diminishing concerns about further U.S. rate hikes are stabilizing demand expectations and mitigating headwinds for industrial metals.
Copper is expected to consolidate between $6.4583 and $6.7553, with technical signals mixed but favoring a 65% probability of an upward breakout.

Supply constraints and easing US rate fears sustain copper rally

Tightening supplies have played a crucial role in sustaining copper's recent rally, as physical scarcity across the market supports ongoing interest from traders and end-users, according to Bloomberg. In parallel, reduced concerns about U.S. interest-rate hikes are helping stabilize sentiment, lowering the risk of demand headwinds for industrial metals. This combination of supply constraints and improving macro policy visibility has allowed copper to maintain higher price levels despite a period of subdued volatility.

Mixed momentum as price straddles key moving averages

On the H4 timeframe, HG is trading below its MA-20 at $6.6783 while remaining above the MA-50 at $6.582 and the MA-200 at $6.0443 (based on the long-term daily chart). The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.725 serves as immediate resistance for the price. Momentum signals remain mixed: MACD and Awesome Oscillator are both neutral, while ADX tilts toward a buy bias. RSI sits at 48.16 and, along with CCI, signals a sell. Stochastic RSI is oversold and Bull/Bear Power favors buyers, illustrating the current indecision between bearish short-term oscillators and underlying buyer pressure.

Breakout risk elevated as consolidation dominates near term

Over the next two to three sessions, HG is likely to consolidate within a typical volatility band between $6.4583 and $6.7553. Scenario analysis puts the probability of an upward breakout at 65%, with a 35% chance of a move lower. The most likely baseline is for price to continue ranging in this corridor absent a decisive move above resistance, while a bullish break above $6.725 would set up for further gains and a fall below the lower boundary would shift momentum toward sellers.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views copper as stabilizing after a sustained rally, supported by supply constraints and cautious optimism in the macro backdrop. He notes mixed technical signals and emphasizes that resistance at $6.725 is a critical hurdle. Consolidation is likely unless price breaks out decisively. "Base case remains sideways until $6.725 is cleared — otherwise, I stay neutral and watch for renewed volatility."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent supply-side constraints and geopolitical pressures were key in supporting copper prices with the market poised for a consolidation phase pending a decisive move. The latest analysis reinforces these supply dynamics while highlighting improved macro policy clarity, making the $6.725 resistance level a critical threshold to monitor for a potential breakout in the near term.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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