WTI holds near $83 as Middle East risks keep volatility elevated

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Anton Kharitonov

11.08.2026

WTI holds near $83 as Middle East risks keep volatility elevated — USCRUDE

WTI is currently trading around $82.80 per barrel, having rebounded from strong support in the $75-$76 area. Geopolitics remains the dominant driver for the oil market, with the highly unstable situation in the Middle East and the lack of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continuing to trigger sharp swings in volatility.

U.S. inventory picture remains mixed

Fundamentals in the U.S. oil market remain mixed. According to the latest EIA report dated August 5, U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 407.0 million barrels, which is a negative signal for WTI. At the same time, crude stocks remain roughly 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels and stand around 7% below seasonal norms, while distillate stocks declined by 3.5 million barrels and remain approximately 12% below the five-year average. As a result, the increase in crude inventories is partly offset by relatively tight conditions across refined product markets.

$85 resistance remains key for further gains

Although the current recovery in WTI remains capped by resistance near $85.00, pullbacks could be limited by support around $82.00. Holding above that level may encourage another attempt to break resistance and test the $86.00-$87.00 area. A loss of support would shift the focus toward $80.50-$80.00, although such a decline could attract renewed buying interest.

Until there, as I already warned in the article WTI extends rebound as Middle East risks support prices, is an official announcement confirming a peace agreement between the parties, expectations for a sustained decline in oil prices appear premature.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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