Stable movement for Copper as supply constraints offset market dynamics

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Copper rises 0.46% to $6.64 today

Highlights

Copper supply faces disruption as Codelco's El Teniente mine suspension and DRC's export ban reduce global tonnage.
Large copper flows into US warehouses ahead of a potential US import tariff decision have lowered stocks in other regions.
Copper trades in a medium- and long-term bullish structure with prices expected to range from $6.5137 to $6.7789 over the coming days.

Supply concerns escalate as mine disruptions tighten global copper market

A suspension at Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile has disrupted copper output, directly constraining global supply and fueling concerns among market participants, according to Barchart. The impact is compounded by the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban on copper and cobalt concentrate, which further limits the tonnage available in the international market, Barchart reported. Meanwhile, Bloomberg highlights that large flows of copper into US warehouses, driven by anticipation of a US import tariff decision, have reduced stocks elsewhere and contributed to the ongoing tightness in global copper supply.

Mixed momentum as buy signals clash with resistance at Kijun level

HG is positioned below its MA-20 at $6.7108 but continues to trade above the MA-50 at $6.6065 and remains comfortably above the long-term MA-200 at $6.2468 on the H4 chart. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.725, while key support sits at $6.5137. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD and ADX both show bullish signals, whereas Stochastic RSI is overbought and RSI reads 55. CCI is neutral, Bull/Bear Power reflects intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, which does not confirm a strong uptrend.

Range-bound trading likely as consolidation persists near key levels

Over the next several days, copper is expected to stay within a typical volatility band between support at $6.5137 and resistance at $6.7789. The baseline scenario is for price consolidation in a sideways range near current levels. A decisive move above $6.725 would open room for further gains, while a drop below $6.5137 could trigger a corrective move lower.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, lead analyst at Traders Union, sees copper supported by strong macro and supply-side fundamentals. Global supply risks remain elevated after disruptions in Chile and the DRC, while warehouse flows reflect ongoing market caution and sentiment. He believes the current setup encourages price stability near recent highs, with momentum favoring eventual upside if resistance is cleared. "If copper sustains above $6.725, we could see another leg higher as fundamentals stay robust and sentiment is firming," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that copper maintained a stable outlook driven by strong producer earnings and steady market momentum. The current disruption in global supply chains adds a new layer of complexity to the outlook, making movement above or below the $6.725 resistance and $6.5137 support the critical developments to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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