Can copper regain momentum after its record rally?

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Copper drops 0.94% to $6.55 today

Highlights

BHP reported a 30% increase in full-year profit to $13.2 billion as copper revenues surpassed iron ore for the first time.
BHP declared its largest dividend in four years after windfall copper gains, as U.S. copper imports reached a twelve-year high and LME inventories hit five-year lows.
Copper trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with indicators showing strong intraday selling pressure; the expected range for the next 2 to 3 days is $6.4988 to $6.6088.

Record BHP profit as tight supply and high demand buoy copper

BHP reported a 30% increase in full-year profit to $13.2 billion, driven by unprecedented copper prices, with copper revenues overtaking iron ore for the first time, according to Bloomberg. This result demonstrates the impact of tight global supply and robust demand conditions directly supporting realized prices and profitability in the copper market. The company also declared its largest dividend in four years, reflecting recent windfall gains, while physical market dynamics remain under strain with U.S. copper imports at a twelve-year high and LME inventories at five-year lows as reported by Oilprice. Together, these underlying factors help frame the current trading environment for copper futures.

Bearish momentum holds as indicators signal further downside risk

The $6.5538 level leaves copper trading below the hourly MA-20 and MA-50, both signaling short- to-medium term selling pressure, while price maintains support above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.6139 provides immediate overhead resistance. Technical signals from MACD, ADX, RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all point to a continued bearish intraday bias, with RSI at 39.43 confirming increased bearish momentum but stopping short of oversold. Stoch RSI reads neutral, while the Awesome Oscillator remains negative, and a gap of 0.0493 marks the mid-range for today amid moderate volatility.

Downside favored as price faces resistance and range narrows

Over the next 2–3 trading days, copper is expected to remain within a volatility band of $6.4988 to $6.6088. There is a 77% probability of a downside move and only a 23% chance of an upward break. The baseline outlook calls for range-bound action unless price closes decisively above resistance at $6.6139, in which case a recovery scenario could unfold. Confirmation of a bearish move would require a break below the $6.4988 short-term support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees current copper price action as weighed down by clear supply stress but held in check by technical resistance. He believes that despite strong fundamentals from BHP’s results and low inventories, short-term momentum remains bearish. Key levels at $6.6139 and $6.4988 are critical for direction in the coming days. "For now, I remain cautious — no bullish case unless copper closes above $6.6139."

Previously it was reported that ongoing U.S.-Canada tariff negotiations and technical resistance had introduced significant uncertainty to the near-term copper outlook, keeping price action primarily range-bound. The latest market developments add to this narrative by highlighting persistent supply tightness and elevated import demand, underscoring the importance of $6.4988 as a critical support to watch for potential breakdown risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.