Can increased earnings dependence weigh on copper price?

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Copper drops 1.11% to $6.42 today

Highlights

Copper is projected to deliver 54 percent of BHP Group's underlying EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026.
BHP Group's earnings show increased sensitivity to copper price movements and supply-demand changes.
Copper trades below key short-term averages with strong intraday selling pressure, and the expected range is $6.3407 to $6.5069 with a high probability of continued downside.

BHP earnings profile shifts as copper’s market exposure grows

Copper has become the largest earnings contributor for BHP Group in its fiscal year 2026, accounting for 54 percent of underlying EBITDA according to Economic Times Indiatimes. This shift underscores the heightened importance of copper price movements for BHP's future earnings profile and signals greater corporate exposure to shifts in copper demand and supply. The recent emphasis on copper within BHP's portfolio points to increased market sensitivity to company-specific copper flows, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Negative momentum prevails as indicators signal oversold conditions

Technically, HG is trading below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the H1 timeframe, while remaining above the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.4613. Intraday momentum remains negative, with MACD and ADX both in sell mode. The RSI is at 32, with the Stoch RSI and CCI also in oversold condition, suggesting potential for near-term stabilization. Bull/Bear Power confirms dominant seller momentum, whereas the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not currently reinforce the prevailing downside.

Downside risk persists as reversal chances remain limited

Over the next 2–3 days, copper is expected to trade within a band between $6.3407 and $6.5069, defining the typical volatility environment for the immediate term. The likelihood of an upward move is considered very low, while scenarios favoring continued downside remain much more probable. Consolidation within this range remains the baseline, but a decline below the lower bound could trigger further bearish momentum; on the other hand, any attempt at reversal would require a clear break above the Ichimoku resistance.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that copper remains technically weak after a sharp move down. He sees BHP Group’s increasing reliance on copper as a key source of earnings, which raises corporate exposure to further price risks. Consolidation is likely, with little evidence of immediate recovery. "Base case remains a defensive stance while copper trades below $6.4613 — sellers still control the tape."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper markets were under strain due to tight inventories and ongoing shifts in global supply dynamics. With BHP Group now relying heavily on copper for earnings, traders should monitor for any supply-side disruptions or policy shifts as potential catalysts for volatility beyond the current $6.3407–$6.5069 consolidation band.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.