Copper price resistance test: Breakout levels to watch

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Copper gains 2.22% to $6.61 today

Highlights

KGHM Polska Miedz reported an 860% increase in first-half 2026 profit, driven by higher copper prices and improved efficiency.
Copper accounted for 54% of BHP Group's underlying EBITDA in fiscal 2026 amid strong global demand for the commodity.
Copper trades with sustained bullish momentum across all timeframes, targeting a range of $6.5297 to $6.6959 in the coming sessions.

Producer earnings surge as copper's sector leadership fuels profit growth

KGHM Polska Miedź reported an 860% surge in first-half 2026 profit, a move directly attributed to the rally in copper prices and improved operational efficiency, according to Investing.com. This earnings outperformance signals not only enhanced profitability for major copper producers but also reflects the strength of realized price gains within the sector. Additionally, Economictimes Indiatimes noted that copper has become the largest contributor to BHP Group's underlying EBITDA, accounting for 54% in fiscal 2026, underscoring the commodity's pivotal role amid robust global demand.

Upside momentum persists as overbought signals and major supports converge

On the technical front, HG has established a clear upside structure, with price holding above the MA-20 ($6.522) and MA-50 ($6.4916) on the H1 chart, and maintaining a solid base over the daily MA-200 ($6.093). The pivotal Ichimoku Kijun support sits at $6.5085, while the immediate intraday range is marked by support at $6.5297 and resistance at $6.6959. Momentum is decisively positive, with MACD and ADX indicating persistent buying strength; however, oscillators like RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI have all entered overbought territory, while Bull/Bear Power continues to favor bull dominance. The Awesome Oscillator confirms the prevailing trend, with its values aligned upward in support of continuation.

Potential breakout for copper as consolidation range narrows

In the short term, copper is expected to consolidate within the $6.5297 to $6.6959 corridor, with a high probability of further gains should price break above the upper boundary. The consolidation scenario remains the baseline expectation given ongoing bullish momentum. Upside acceleration could follow a clean breakout above $6.6959, opening the path for trend extension, while a reversal scenario would likely require a decisive move below immediate support at the Kijun level, currently at $6.5085.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper supported by robust earnings from key producers and technical strength above major moving averages. He believes the short-term outlook remains constructive, but highlights the risk of overextension with several key indicators in overbought territory. The base case expects consolidation unless there is a clear move beyond immediate resistance or support levels. "Given stretched momentum readings, I recommend caution and would wait for confirmation before taking on new positions."

Earlier, analysts noted that gains in metals such as copper were helping drive outperformance among major mining stocks amid broader market volatility. With copper now consolidating near new highs and key sector earnings outpacing expectations, traders should monitor price action around the $6.6959 resistance for signs of renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.