Copper price forecast: $6.495 support in focus as HG rises 1.12%

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Copper up 1.12% today at $6.62

Highlights

Copper prices approach record highs as supply disruptions intensify at major mines in Chile's Atacama region.
A build in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange emerges as a moderating factor for further price gains.
Copper trades in a strong bullish trend with $6.495 as key support and an expected range of $6.5155 to $6.7375 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Price gains fueled by Chilean supply risks as LME stocks temper rally

Worsening supply disruptions at major copper mines in Chile’s Atacama region are heightening near-term supply risks and fueling price gains, according to Sedaily. Additional fresh supply interruptions have helped push prices toward record levels, as reported by Thebull Com, underscoring tightening conditions in the global copper market. However, Brecorder notes that a recent build in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange has emerged as a moderating force, potentially capping further advances despite current strength.

Bullish momentum holds above key supports as overbought risks emerge

Technical analysis identifies the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.495 as immediate support. The H4 chart shows Copper trading above both its MA-20 and MA-50, with the daily price also above the MA-200. MACD on the H4 timeframe signals ongoing buy momentum, while ADX points to moderate trend strength. RSI and CCI lean bullish, though the Stoch RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting the current rally may face short-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power indicates persistent buyer control intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not reinforce the prevailing bias.

Breakout or pullback seen as copper tests consolidation band

Over the next two to three trading days, Copper is expected to move within the $6.5155 to $6.7375 volatility band relative to current levels. The base scenario sees price consolidating inside this range. Further upside is highly probable if price breaks above resistance, targeting the upper end of the forecast band; conversely, a drop below $6.495 support could open the door for a pullback toward the lower boundary.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, remains cautious despite the current rally in Copper. He sees persistent supply disruptions supporting price strength in the near term, but notes that rising inventory levels could cap gains. Key technical indicators show ongoing bullish momentum, but overbought signals warrant care. "My base case is price consolidation within $6.5155 – $6.7375; if $6.495 fails as support, I expect a short-term pullback."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting bullish momentum, with inventory developments remaining the key factor shaping the market outlook. The current article adds that ongoing supply disruptions are intensifying upward price pressure, making the interplay between supply interruptions and inventory growth a crucial determinant for the next directional move.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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