Palladium climbs over 5% as price holds above 20-day and 50-day moving averages

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Palladium rises 5.00% today

Highlights

XPD/USD trades above short- and medium-term moving averages but remains under long-term resistance, indicating mixed momentum.
Momentum indicators are mostly positive to neutral, with price action and intraday flows showing buyers in control and modest overbought signals.
Expected price range over the next five days is $1,387 to $1,460, with an over 80% probability of an upward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the 5.00% rally in palladium as overextended and driven by short-term technical factors. He notes that the price remains capped below the 200-day moving average, indicating lingering long-term weakness. The absence of supporting news undermines this surge, and momentum gauges now hover near overbought. Kharitonov highlights that volatility is elevated, while trend strength is not yet confirmed by the ADX. "This bounce may quickly fade without stronger macro or fundamental backing," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, interprets palladium’s breakout above short-term moving averages as a firm bullish signal. The structure remains constructive, with price strength and clear buy signals from key oscillators. Despite missing fundamental news, technicals show that the uptrend is intact and further growth is likely. Karapetjanc emphasizes the opportunity for upside continuation on a break above $1,460. "This market continues to offer solid setups for bulls seeking momentum trades," he says.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains skeptical about the sustainability of palladium’s move. He observes that price action is strong but driven by technicals in the absence of supportive headlines or macro drivers. Current overbought indicators raise the risk of a sharp reversal. "Without an external catalyst, rallies like this often lose steam quickly," says Dele.

Buyer dominance persists as short-term momentum clashes with overbought risks

XPD/USD trades above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($1,347 and $1,302, respectively), showing strong short- and medium-term momentum, with longer-term downward pressure as it remains below the 200-day moving average at $1,478. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,325 acts as support. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,460 and near-term support is the session high at $1,392. Positive momentum is confirmed by a strong buy on the MACD. The ADX is neutral, hinting at a building trend. Both RSI and Stochastic RSI signal a buy, but readings flag modest overbought conditions. CCI and AO remain neutral, while BBP shows clear buyer dominance with intraday momentum in overbought territory. Volatility is elevated at 5.40%, with price strength persisting near the session’s upper range.

Earlier, analysts noted that palladium was trapped in a sideways regime amid ongoing supply uncertainties and mixed technical signals. The latest rally above key short- and medium-term averages reinforces bullish momentum, making the $1,460 resistance level the primary point of focus for potential breakout confirmation in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XPD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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