Gold trades flat after Federal Reserve Chair Warsh Jackson Hole speech

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Gold rises 0.45% to $4,599 today

Highlights

Investor attention is on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole, as market participants assess possible monetary policy changes.
Recent statements from Fed officials warning about inflation have sustained market uncertainty and kept trading volume subdued in the gold market.
Gold price remains within a $4,542 to $4,656 range for the next 2 to 3 days, with technical signals showing conflicting momentum and a 59% probability of an upward move.

Cautious trading prevails as Fed remarks drive market uncertainty

Investor focus is centered on the upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, according to Profit Pakistantoday Com. Recent warnings about inflation from Fed officials have reinforced market uncertainty, keeping participants attentive to possible shifts in monetary policy. This environment has led to cautious trading behavior and restrained activity in the gold market.

Mixed signals emerge as momentum and resistance converge

On the technical front, XAU sits below the MA-20 at $4,615, above the MA-50 at $4,553 on the H4 chart, and remains over the MA-200 at $4,595 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,631 acts as immediate resistance for any upward move. MACD issues a strong buy signal and the ADX lends support to underlying bullish strength, yet oscillator readings are mixed: RSI and Stoch RSI are in overbought territory and skewed toward buying, while CCI and the Awesome Oscillator point toward selling. Bull/Bear Power is also overbought, reflecting intraday buyer dominance, though the combination of these indicators highlights indecision and an absence of clear bullish confirmation.

Mild upside bias as breakout scenarios hinge on resistance

Looking ahead over the next 2 to 3 trading days, XAU is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band of $4,542 to $4,656. There is a 59% probability of a further move higher, making an upward scenario somewhat more likely. If price breaks out above immediate resistance, targets shift toward the higher end of the projected range; failure to hold above support would expose XAU to a potential test of $4,542.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the gold market caught in a holding pattern due to uncertainty over Fed guidance and unclear momentum signals. He notes that mixed technicals and cautious sentiment are keeping both buyers and sellers on the sidelines. Until XAU makes a decisive move above resistance or below key support, the outlook remains muted. "For now, I remain defensive — until gold closes convincingly outside the $4,542–$4,656 range, commitment either way is premature."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was likely to remain in a consolidative phase as traders looked to central bank policy cues for directional clarity. The current analysis adds a cautiously bullish tilt, suggesting that a sustained move above immediate resistance could open the way for near-term gains, while downside risks remain if support is breached.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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