Central banks add 289 tonnes to gold reserves support gold price near $4,519 resistance

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Gold gains 0.83% to $4,458 today

Highlights

A hawkish speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh increased the probability of a September rate hike due to persistent inflation concerns.
Central banks acquired 289 tonnes of gold globally in the second quarter of 2026 as part of ongoing shifts in reserve allocations.
Gold is expected to consolidate between $4,397 and $4,519, with technical signals showing short-term strength but a medium- and long-term bearish setup.

Conflicting gold outlook as Fed hawkishness counters central bank demand

Gold's recent movement is shaped by a hawkish address from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which raised the likelihood of a September rate hike amid ongoing inflation concerns, according to Fxstreet. This stance introduces expectations for tighter monetary conditions, dampening gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge and influencing broader safe-haven demand. At the same time, central banks purchased 289 tonnes of gold globally in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a gradual institutional shift in reserve allocations, as reported by Kucoin. These factors together underscore conflicting drivers—potential macro headwinds from monetary policy and underlying support from official sector accumulation.

Bearish momentum prevails as key resistance stalls rally

On the technical front, XAU trades just above the MA-20 at $4,449, while it remains below both the MA-50 at $4,536 and the MA-200 at $4,593. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,518 is acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators skew bearish: MACD shows a strong sell signal, and ADX also points to selling conditions. Despite RSI at 40.83 (Sell) and a neutral CCI, intraday oscillators including Bull/Bear Power and Stochastic RSI indicate overbought conditions, suggesting buyers have dominated the latest move. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, offering little reinforcement for either trend direction, while daily volatility has been moderate.

Downward bias likely as resistance outweighs breakout potential

For the next two to three trading days, gold is expected to consolidate within the $4,397 to $4,519 range, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further move upward is estimated at just 30%, with a higher likelihood that prices will weaken or drift lower within this corridor. Should XAU clear immediate resistance, a breakout rally could ensue, but a failure to hold above support may trigger renewed selling momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees gold trading in a balanced zone as macro and institutional forces offset each other. He notes that Fed policy is putting pressure on gold’s monetary appeal, yet sustained central bank demand signals long-term interest remains robust. Karapetjanc believes the technical setup suggests consolidation in the coming days, with only a limited chance for a larger breakout. "If gold holds above key support levels, I see room for constructive action, but the market needs a clear catalyst for any meaningful upside," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was likely to remain in a consolidative phase as technical signals built toward a medium-term bullish bias. The latest developments, however, highlight a shift toward near-term caution amid hawkish Fed rhetoric and bearish momentum signals, suggesting traders should watch for a potential breakdown below $4,397 as the next key risk.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.