Gold price holds near $4,356 support as strong US jobs data supports Fed rate hikes

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Gold slips 0.05% to $4,403 today

Highlights

Stronger US jobs data increases the probability of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, pressuring gold demand as a non-yielding asset.
The People’s Bank of China added 20 tonnes to its gold reserves in August, marking the 22nd consecutive monthly increase.
Gold trades below key trend indicators with sellers dominant and a 65% probability of moving down to $4,356 to $4,449 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Fed tightening signals near-term pressure as China boosts gold reserves

Stronger US jobs data has raised the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, signaling tighter monetary policy and weighing on demand for gold as a non-yielding asset, according to Fxstreet. In a separate development, the People's Bank of China reported that it added 20 tonnes to its gold reserves in August, marking its 22nd consecutive monthly increase, as noted by Bullionvault. This ongoing accumulation by a major central bank highlights persistent structural demand for the metal, even as short-term sentiment responds to shifting interest rate expectations.

Bearish signals deepen as gold breaches key moving averages

On the technical front, XAU remains below the MA-20 at $4,412, MA-50 at $4,414, and the MA-200 at $4,567, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,412 serves as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators reinforce this setup: MACD signals a sell bias, while ADX suggests the absence of a clear trend. RSI, Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all reflect oversold or intraday sell conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator supports downside momentum, with price sitting near today's session low.

Downside bias grows as gold clings to volatile range

Looking ahead over the next 2–3 trading days, gold is likely to consolidate within a range of $4,356 to $4,449. The probability of an upward move stands at 35%, while a downside move appears more likely at 65%. The baseline scenario anticipates continued trading within this corridor. However, a bullish breakout above $4,412 would invalidate immediate resistance, while a drop below $4,356 could trigger further declines, expanding the recent volatility band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees conflicting forces shaping the gold market. Strong US jobs data is pressuring gold in the short term as rate hike risks weigh on sentiment. Yet sustained central bank demand, led by China, adds resilience to longer-term fundamentals. He remains attentive to key technical barriers and possible reversals. "Gold may face near-term headwinds, but persistent official sector buying sets a constructive backdrop for recovery once rate pressures subside."

Previously it was reported that the Reserve Bank of India set the premature redemption price for the Sovereign Gold Bond 2020-21 Series VI based on recent market gold prices, emphasizing transparency for retail investors. The latest technical signals combined with ongoing central bank accumulation suggest that traders should closely monitor the $4,412 resistance and $4,356 support levels, as a breakout on either side could set the tone for near-term price action.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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