Copper hits record highs: Can the four-year bull run continue?
Copper continues to show strong upward momentum and trades close to record highs. After five consecutive sessions of gains, however, the probability of short-term profit-taking is increasing noticeably.
The rally continues to be driven primarily by a combination of tight supply and tariff risks in the U.S. On September 8, December COMEX futures reached a record high near $6.873 per pound, while LME copper set a new peak around $14,779 per tonne. Concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper continue to redirect metal toward the U.S., reducing available supply in other markets.
Mine supply also remains constrained. International Copper Study Group data show that global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, while concentrate output declined 2.6%.
At the same time, a new risk factor is emerging. China imported only 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in August, marking the weakest August figure in six years. COMEX inventories have also risen to a record 695,624 tonnes, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable to profit-taking after the rapid advance.
Trendline support makes $6.56 crucial
Copper is still in a medium- and short-term uptrend. After five consecutive sessions of gains, however, the probability of a short-term pullback is increasing.
The first sign that such a move might be starting would be a doji candle closing today on elevated trading volume. If that happens the main level to watch for a correction is support at $6.56, which's close to the rising trendline.
A drop below the trendline and a sustained move under $6.56 would seriously weaken the bullish structure. The next target would be $6.37. If selling pressure builds the downside could extend toward $6.16.
Shorting the assets directly near ATH remains particularly risky, so the bearish case would require confirmation, primarily through a break of the 6/56 support level.
Four-year rally keeps the long-term trend intact
Even if a correction begins, the broader uptrend would remain intact. Copper has risen more than 75% since September 2022, while BHP expects global demand to climb from about 34 million tonnes today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.Against this backdrop, BHP’s Brandon Craig described copper as “the engine that is driving BHP’s growth,” underscoring the metal’s strategic importance to major miners. Tight supply and rising demand from power grids, AI infrastructure and data centers continue to support the long-term bullish outlook.
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