Global gold ETF inflows lift gold price toward $4,548 resistance

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Gold gains 1.15% today to $4,343

Highlights

Global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in inflows in August 2026, expanding holdings by 121 tonnes to 4,189 tonnes.
The People’s Bank of China increased gold reserves by 20.2 metric tonnes in the same month, adding structural demand.
Gold trades in a short- and medium-term bullish phase with 71% odds of stabilizing between $4,303 to $4,382 in the next 2 days.

Record ETF inflows and central bank buying drive sustained demand

Global gold ETFs logged $18 billion in inflows in August 2026, boosting holdings by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes, according to Fxempire. This substantial institutional accumulation signaled robust demand, directly supporting upward momentum in Gold. Additionally, the People's Bank of China added 20.2 metric tonnes during the same month, offering further structural demand as reported by Fxempire. These developments collectively underpin current buying interest and contribute to the asset's renewed strength.

Bullish signals hold as momentum indicators warn of overextension

On the technical front, XAU is trading above both its MA-20 at $4,312 and MA-50 at $4,299, while remaining below the MA-200 at $4,548. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $4,310, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators including MACD and ADX display a bullish bias, with the RSI reading at 68.82, indicating buying conditions. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in overbought territory, and Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is also aligned with the prevailing upward trend, although several oscillators suggest the asset is approaching overextended levels.

Upside favored amid defined range and asymmetric risk

Over the next one to two trading days, Gold is expected to trade within a volatility band spanning $4,303 to $4,382. There is a 71% probability of further upside movement, with downside risk assessed at 29%. The baseline scenario calls for stabilization within this range. Should Gold break above the upper boundary, additional gains are likely, while a move below $4,310 support could prompt a sharper retreat.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees recent gold ETF inflows as a strong institutional demand signal, while continued central bank purchases lend underlying support. Technically, gold trades above key short- and medium-term averages, but momentum indicators show overbought conditions and possible exhaustion. He remains cautious, watching for either a breakout above $4,382 or a drop below $4,310 as key signals. "Until gold decisively breaks its current range, I remain on the defensive and will reassess if support at $4,310 fails."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was consolidating amid technical weakness and investor caution, with downside risks remaining elevated. The current analysis signals a shift in momentum as institutional inflows and renewed structural demand now underpin a bullish scenario, making a breakout above $4,382 the key level to watch for confirmation of further gains.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.