Global refinery inputs decline in 2026 as Middle East conflict disrupts crude flows

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Global refinery inputs decline 2026

Highlights

Global crude oil refinery inputs drop by 4.8 million b/d (6%) in 2Q26 after Middle East conflict starts, before partially recovering by 1.8 million b/d in 3Q26.
China sees the steepest decline with refinery inputs down 2.1 million b/d in 2Q26, while India, South Korea, and Japan collectively fall over 1 million b/d before rebounding by 0.8 million b/d in 3Q26.
Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure reduce Russian refinery inputs by 0.6 million b/d in 2Q26 and 0.8 million b/d in 3Q26, tightening the global diesel market and sending prices to record highs in September.

Refining declines and partial 3Q26 recovery

As reported by U.S. Energy Information Administration, global crude oil refinery inputs fall by 4.8 million barrels per day, or 6%, in 2Q26 after conflict begins in late February in the Middle East, based on data from Kpler. Throughput then rises by 1.8 million b/d in 3Q26 as refiners in the region adapt to new trade flows.

In a typical year, refiners increase crude runs in the second and third quarters after planned maintenance and ahead of peak demand for products such as gasoline and jet fuel. By comparison, global crude oil inputs increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2Q25 and by another 2 million b/d in 3Q25.

Countries most exposed to the loss of crude supply linked to the Strait of Hormuz record the steepest declines. China's refinery inputs fall by 2.1 million b/d in 2Q26 and by a further 0.8 million b/d in 3Q26, while India, South Korea and Japan together post a drop of more than 1.0 million b/d in 2Q26 before rebounding by 0.8 million b/d in 3Q26.

Refinery inputs also weaken across key Middle East producers as the strait's closure sharply limits refined product exports. Inputs fall by 0.7 million b/d in Kuwait, 0.7 million b/d in the United Arab Emirates, 0.3 million b/d in Saudi Arabia and 0.2 million b/d in Iran in 2Q26, before total inputs across those four countries rise by 0.4 million b/d in 3Q26.

Diesel market pressure and regional shifts

Outside the Middle East, attacks on Russian oil infrastructure during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine reduce refinery crude oil inputs in Russia by 0.6 million b/d in 2Q26 and by an additional 0.8 million b/d in 3Q26. Because Russia is a major diesel exporter, the decline in refinery activity tightens an already constrained global diesel market and helps push diesel prices to their highest nominal levels on record in September.

Some regions offset part of the disruption by securing alternative crude supplies. In the U.S., refinery inputs increase by 0.5 million b/d in 2Q26 and by another 0.5 million b/d in 3Q26, as the country expands refined product exports to compensate for lost supply elsewhere.

Global refinery inputs recover somewhat in 3Q26 as increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers return more Middle Eastern crude to the market. Even with that rebound, average crude oil inputs in 3Q26 remain about 5% lower than in the same period of 2025.

In our earlier article on the WTO’s assessment of conflict-driven trade disruptions, we noted that wars in the Middle East and Ukraine were reshaping global commerce as companies adopted alternative shipping routes and more resilient (but costlier) supply-chain setups. We also highlighted the WTO’s expectation that Middle East exports and imports would fall sharply amid the disruptions, even as global trade growth could be partly supported by demand for AI-related goods.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.