Sugar price forecast: Bearish momentum persists with seller pressure dominating

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Sugar slides 3.31% today to USX18.43

Highlights

Raw sugar prices hit a one-month low as investment funds cut long positions, increasing selling pressure and liquidity in the market.
The exit of speculative holdings by funds contributed to further softness and reinforced the downward move in sugar futures.
Technicals show strong downside momentum with bearish signals, and the projected price range for the next 2 to 3 days is USX18.25 to USX18.61.

Fund long liquidation triggers renewed downside momentum

Raw sugar reached a one-month low on ICE as investment funds moved to reduce their long positions, according to Finimize. The unwinding of these speculative holdings contributed to increased selling pressure, directly impacting available liquidity and prompting further softness in the market. These actions by funds have weighed on sentiment, reinforcing the latest bout of downward momentum in Sugar futures.

Bearish momentum dominates as SB tests technical support

SB currently sits below both its MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, highlighting ongoing short- and medium-term pressure, yet remains above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe, maintaining a longer-term positive structure. The Ichimoku Kijun at USX18.93 stands as immediate resistance, while momentum remains bearish overall, with both MACD and ADX aligned to the downside. RSI and Stoch RSI signal a neutral momentum state, whereas CCI in the oversold territory suggests some rebound potential. Bull/Bear Power registers negative at -0.23, reflecting notable seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator mirrors this bearish tilt.

Downside favored as price nears support in tight range

In the short term, SB is expected to trade within the USX18.25 to USX18.61 range over the next 2–3 sessions. The likelihood of continued downside is prominent, with a 78% probability versus a 22% chance of a rebound. Should the price break above the immediate resistance at USX18.93, a recovery scenario could emerge, while a drop below USX18.25 may open the way for further losses.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that selling pressure has intensified on Sugar as funds reduce exposure and technical momentum remains negative. He sees short- and medium-term trends as weak while the price remains capped below key moving averages and resistance at USX18.93. The analyst remains cautious given persistent bearish sentiment and a lack of strong reversal signals. "Until Sugar reclaims USX18.93, I see little incentive to initiate new long positions here."

Previously it was reported that Sugar futures were under sustained short- and medium-term bearish pressure, despite maintaining a longer-term positive bias. The current analysis reinforces this outlook, with continued downside risk prevailing and immediate attention warranted on the USX18.25 level as a potential inflection point for further movement.

Source of Data: SB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.