Nigeria cocoa farmers expect maincrop output to hold steady amid favourable weather

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Nigeria cocoa outlook steady

Highlights

Nigeria's 2026/2027 maincrop cocoa output expected to hold steady as balanced rainfall and sunshine mitigate previous cultivation challenges, despite lower per-tree yields.
Farm gate cocoa prices average N7.5 million per metric ton and N7,500 per kilogram, while the International Cocoa Organisation's global price stands at N4,949 per ton.
Farmers and processors warn that an expected El Nino pattern in early 2027 may trigger severe dryness, threatening cocoa yields and potentially disrupting the mid-crop.

Weather conditions support harvest outlook

As reported by Businessday, farmers and industry groups say a balanced mix of timely rainfall and prolonged sunshine in Nigeria's cocoa belt is helping the new maincrop season start on a stable footing. The improved conditions have eased earlier cultivation challenges and reduced the risk of a sharper production decline, even though yield per tree is lower in the 2026/2027 cycle than in the previous year's record harvest.

Adeola Adegoke, national president of the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, says producers are set to retain output for the 2026/2027 maincrop season because rains continue despite the heat, supporting both pod formation and sun drying. Lawrence Afere, founder of Springboard Farmers' Co-operative of Nigeria and maker of Tiwa Chocolate, says alternating sun and rain cycles are creating favourable conditions for ripening, helping to limit disease pressure and extending the harvest season to around February or March.

Nigeria has two cocoa harvest seasons, with the smaller mid-crop running from April to June and the main crop from October to December. The main crop accounts for about 70 percent of annual output, while the mid-crop contributes the remaining 30 percent.

Supply implications and climate risks

Steady production in Nigeria could offer some relief to global cocoa supply chains as markets continue to monitor West African output after structural deficits and sharp price swings. At the farm gate, a metric ton of cocoa sells for an average of N7.5 million, while a kilogram sells for N7,500, and the International Cocoa Organisation places the global daily price at N4,949 per ton.

Longer term, farmers and processors are increasingly concerned about an El Nino pattern expected to affect West Africa next year. Felix Oladunjoye, chairman of the Cocoa Processors Association of Nigeria, says severe dry conditions in early 2027 could disrupt flowering and weigh on yields just as the mid-crop begins.

According to the International Cocoa Organisation, Nigeria produced 315,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 cocoa season, ranking behind Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana and Ecuador. That position means any stability in Nigerian supply is relevant for local exporters navigating fluctuating international benchmarks as well as for buyers tracking regional availability.

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and fertilizer supply constraints have begun to affect agricultural harvests and planting decisions, raising costs and weighing on yields across the food supply chain, as our earlier report noted. We also highlighted that agricultural commodity prices had already risen sharply and could continue climbing as uncertainty persists, increasing food-security risks in parts of Asia and Africa.

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