Global Carbon Project sees fossil fuel emissions easing as renewable use rises
High energy prices and wider renewable power use are set to push global fossil fuel carbon emissions slightly lower this year from last year's record level. Scientists say the projected decline does not yet mark a lasting turning point because emissions need to fall through deeper structural changes in energy production.
Highlights
- Global Carbon Project forecasts fossil fuel carbon emissions will decline 0.4% in 2024 to 38.2 billion metric tons of CO2.
- Oil-related emissions are projected to drop 1.9% due to price-driven demand reduction linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
- Emissions from China and the U.S. are expected to fall 0.9% and 1.3% respectively, reflecting weaker oil demand and increased renewable energy uptake.
Report outlook points to modest decline
As reported by BusinessWorld, citing the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel carbon emissions are projected to fall 0.4% this year to 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. The international research effort says it is still too early to conclude that global emissions have peaked.The report is produced by a team of more than 140 scientists. Glen Peters, research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, says a one-year drop cannot be treated as a peak unless it comes from structural change.
Researchers say renewable energy deployment needs to accelerate further to put emissions on a clearer downward path. That warning keeps the focus on whether current price-driven declines can be sustained through lasting shifts in the energy mix.
Oil weakness offsets coal growth
Oil-related emissions are projected to fall 1.9% this year, mainly because supply disruption linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran pushes energy prices higher and curbs demand. Natural gas emissions are expected to edge down 0.3% from last year, while coal emissions are seen rising 0.6%.Among major emitters, China is expected to post a 0.9% decline in emissions, while the U.S., the world's second-largest overall emitter, is projected to record a 1.3% drop from the previous year. The country-level changes suggest weaker oil demand and faster renewable uptake are helping offset continued coal use in parts of the global economy.
We recently reported on soaring oil tanker rates that lifted shipping costs and pushed up fuel and consumer prices.
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