Oil market rebounds as Hormuz attacks offset Iran truce hopes

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Oil market rebounds on Hormuz attacks

Highlights

Brent crude rises 0.78% to $92.20 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gains 0.57% to $86.53 amid shipping disruptions near Hormuz.
Attacks on 37 ships in October and 10 more so far in November highlight persistent security threats in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting tanker traffic and risk perception.
U.S. crude inventories increase by 9 million barrels for the week ended November 6, while Russian refining capacity falls 30% since late October after Ukrainian drone strikes.

Shipping disruptions and price moves

As reported by Reuters, Brent crude futures are up 71 cents, or 0.78%, at $92.20 a barrel by 0119 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gains 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53.

Data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy show 37 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways in October, the highest monthly total since the war began. A further 10 attacks have been recorded so far in November, underscoring the continuing threat to tanker traffic.

Videos posted on social media on Sunday and verified by Reuters show a Navig8 tanker on fire near the coast of Oman, one of three tankers hit that day for using what Iranian state broadcaster says were "unauthorized routes" through the strait. Another tanker is struck northeast of Oman's Lima, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency says, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says in a separate statement that two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on the same route.

LSEG analysts say in a November 10 note that even if a deal is reached, higher shipping flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and shipowners' willingness to accept the risk. They add that attacks have not slowed.

Supply outlook and broader market pressures

Price swings remain sharp after oil initially fell by more than $3 a barrel in the previous session when U.S. officials played down the need for further military strikes against Iran. The market then recovered part of those losses after an Iranian security official says no talks are taking place between the two sides.

Additional supply signals are also shaping sentiment. Market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute data, say U.S. crude inventories rise by 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, a build that points to near-term demand and storage pressures.

In Russia, refining capacity is reduced by about 30% since late October following renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, according to industry sources. Russian and Ukrainian officials also meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, as envoys for U.S. President Donald Trump push for an end to the war.

We have also discussed the broader context around surging tanker rates that pushed crude shipping costs sharply higher amid conflict-related risks.

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