Alaska crude output to grow in 2027 on North Slope projects, EIA says
Alaska’s crude oil production is set to extend its recovery after decades of decline as new North Slope developments add supply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts output will reach 505,000 barrels per day in 2027, the highest level since 2014.
Highlights
- Alaskan crude output projected to rise by 23,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2027, marking the largest annual gains since the 1980s.
- ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project began producing in December 2024, averaging 10,000 barrels per day in 2025, while Pikka Phase 1 hit 38,000 barrels per day by September 2026.
- EIA expects Pikka Phase 1 to reach 80,000 barrels per day at peak by winter 2026–27, equaling nearly 20% of 2025 Alaskan output and driving a 4% third-quarter production increase in 2026.
North Slope projects drive forecast gains
As reported by U.S. Energy Information Administration in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, Alaskan crude oil production is expected to rise by 23,000 barrels per day, or 6%, in 2026 and then by 60,000 barrels per day, or 13%, in 2027.If those gains are realized, they would mark the largest annual increases since the 1980s, when Alaska’s crude output peaked at 2.0 million barrels per day.
The forecast is tied mainly to two North Slope projects. ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 barrels per day at its peak. So far this year, it has averaged 10,000 barrels per day, helping offset declines from existing fields.
The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026. Initial average monthly production was 2,000 barrels per day and reached 38,000 barrels per day as of September 2026, based on data from the Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission.
Output outlook and market significance
EIA expects Pikka Phase 1 to reach peak production of 80,000 barrels per day by winter 2026–27, equivalent to nearly 20% of total Alaskan production in 2025.The agency’s production data also show third-quarter 2026 output grew 4% as Pikka Phase 1 came online, marking the first increase for that quarter in more than 40 years. Alaskan crude production typically falls in late summer when operators carry out annual maintenance, averaging 7% below first-quarter levels over 2021 to 2025.
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