Stronger rate hike anticipation keeps silver under pressure, as investors shy away from non-yielding commodities

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Silver weakens on US inflation and rising interest rate expectations

Highlights

Stronger US inflation data has increased expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike, pressuring silver prices downward.
Rising US yields and a stronger dollar have made non-yielding assets like silver less attractive, reducing investor demand.
Silver trades below key moving averages, with indicators showing oversold conditions and resistance at $51.63; further declines depend on upcoming US data and Fed signals.

US inflation surprises to the upside on November 12, 2026

According to Business Standard, higher-than-expected US inflation data released on November 12, 2026 reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in December, which drove a decline in silver prices.

Stronger rate hike expectations typically lead to higher US yields and a stronger dollar, making non-yielding assets like silver less attractive to investors. This mechanism has dampened demand, pressuring XAG in the aftermath of the inflation report.

The risk context remains tied to further changes in Fed policy outlook, with traders positioning ahead of possible moves signaled by forthcoming US economic data.

4H signals and resistance levels confirm bearish momentum

On the 4H chart, XAG is trading below its SMA20 and SMA50, reflecting ongoing negative momentum. The current price remains under the H4 Kijun resistance, indicating weak short-term sentiment.

RSI is firmly in the oversold zone, while MACD and ADX continue to indicate selling pressure. The daily chart trend is bearish, with no sign of a reversal yet.

US policy signals key for move continuation

Potential for further declines in silver hinges on evolving US rate hike expectations. Resistance sits at $51.63, where a sustained move above could challenge the current bearish structure. Otherwise, the market may remain vulnerable to downside pressure unless upcoming data or Fed signals alter the macro landscape.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees silver under continued pressure following stronger US inflation and renewed expectations for higher rates. Technicals remain negative, with XAG trading below key moving averages and oversold conditions failing to spark a reversal. The risk context is dominated by Fed policy signals, with macro news translating directly into weaker sentiment for silver. "As long as XAG stays under $51.63 and Fed hawkishness persists, I expect further downside risk to remain the base case."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was exhibiting persistent downside momentum, with a bearish technical setup suggesting limited prospects for near-term recovery. The current article reinforces this negative outlook, emphasizing that evolving US interest rate expectations and upcoming Federal Reserve communications remain the key drivers to watch for any shift in silver’s trajectory.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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