Can HG stabilize if US monetary signals or AI demand trends shift?

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Copper slips on US rate risk and softened demand concerns

Highlights

Copper prices sank to a four-month low as demand weakened and tighter global financial conditions persisted.
Expectations of further US interest rate increases and a stronger US dollar have made copper costlier for international buyers.
HG trades below key moving averages with momentum indicators showing a bearish trend; $6.27 is critical resistance for any rebound.

Copper pressured by US rate hike expectations and weak demand

According to Mining, on November 12, 2026, copper prices fell to four-month lows as concerns about weak demand, particularly from the AI industry, were compounded by expectations of US interest rate hikes and a stronger US dollar.

These factors have created tighter global financial conditions, making dollar-denominated commodities like HG more expensive for international buyers. As a result, overall copper demand has softened, which has placed pressure on prices.

Ongoing monitoring of US Federal Reserve policy is needed, as further rate increases or changes in dollar strength could either intensify or relieve these pressures, depending on shifts in economic outlook and industrial copper consumption.

Short-term bearish setup affirmed by 4H chart signals

Technically, HG is holding below both the 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages on the 4H chart, which suggests a prevailing short-term and medium-term bearish structure. Momentum indicators reinforce this view, with both MACD and ADX signaling a continued sell bias.

The H4 Kijun level at $6.27 acts as a key resistance point, and HG would need to break above this level to challenge the prevailing downtrend. Mixed signals are absent, as both price and momentum indicators point in the same direction.

US Fed policy and AI-sector demand will set the next move

Should the US Federal Reserve signal slower rate increases, copper could attempt to stage a rebound, especially if signs of AI-sector demand recovery emerge. However, if demand remains weak or policy becomes more restrictive, further downside could occur. A move above the $6.27 resistance area would be required to confirm any stabilization in the bearish outlook. Until then, external macro policy and currency trends remain the dominant risk factors.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees macroeconomic forces as the main driver for copper’s current weakness. He notes that expectations for US rate hikes and soft demand, especially from the AI sector, are creating a challenging environment for copper. The analyst believes that tighter global financial conditions are pressuring dollar-denominated commodities and see little technical relief unless $6.27 is reclaimed. Positive surprises from the Federal Reserve or renewed AI demand could shift momentum, but the fundamental setup remains cautious yet not without opportunity. "If the Fed signals a pause and AI-related demand picks up, copper has the potential to rebound sharply from these levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper remained under bearish pressure as technical signals and macroeconomic forces limited the potential for price gains. The latest price action supports that cautious stance, as the market awaits further direction from US Federal Reserve policy decisions and evolving trends in industrial copper demand.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.