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Cisco gains 2.08% to $111.94 today

Highlights

Cisco remains under near-term downside pressure, trading below key short-term moving averages but well above its long-term support.
Momentum indicators show a predominantly bearish setup, with persistent negative signals but a Stoch RSI suggesting potential short-term oversold bounce.
Trading range for the coming week is expected between $108.20 and $112.30, with an 80% probability of price consolidation or moderate upside.

Near-term downside pressure amid resistance at key technical levels

Cisco (CSCO) trades at $111.94, below both the MA-20 ($116.43) and MA-50 ($115.94), signaling near-term downside pressure, but remains well above the MA-200 ($87.27), reinforcing longer-term bullish support. The Ichimoku Kijun level sits at $115.21, establishing immediate resistance. Near-term support is found at the MA-50 ($115.94) and key support at the MA-200 ($87.27), while resistance is defined first by the Ichimoku Kijun ($115.21) and then by the MA-20 ($116.43).

Bearish momentum persists despite oversold signals and brief bounce

Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture, with MACD on D1 generating a sell signal while ADX is neutral, suggesting weak prevailing direction. RSI on D1 is in the bearish zone at 44.43, with CCI also negative at –97.25, and BBP confirming sellers’ dominance with an oversold reading. The Awesome Oscillator on D1 aligns with this downward bias. However, Stoch RSI is in “Strong Buy” territory (22.82), indicating a potential short-term bounce from oversold levels and contradicting the immediate momentum. In today’s session, CSCO is up 2.08%, recovering from weekly losses. Over the past week, Cisco has fallen $9.34 (7.70%) from the previous close of $121.28 and is now positioned in the lower part of the weekly range. Weekly volatility stands at 11.91%. The price action reflects a steady decline from recent highs, with no clear sign of reversal yet.

Bullish reversal likely as weekly indicators outweigh downside risk

For the coming week, the expected trading range is $108.20 to $112.30, keeping the price anchored between the 52-week low ($65.75) and high ($130.37) but close to the recent local lows. The probability of a price increase is high (more than 80%), given strong "Buy" readings from RSI-W1, ADX-W1, MACD-W1, and long-term MAs on W1. The likelihood of further downside is correspondingly very low. The baseline scenario sees price consolidation between support and resistance as the market digests recent declines. A bullish scenario could unfold if Cisco breaks above immediate resistance at $115.21, opening the path toward the MA-20 ($116.43). Conversely, renewed selling might push the stock below $108.20, exposing it to further medium-term downside, though this is less likely.

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Previously it was reported that Cisco's raised AI infrastructure order targets and strong recurring revenues were supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook, despite lingering weak momentum indicators. In light of the current developments, traders should closely monitor for sustained momentum and watch for confirmation of a trend reversal, as renewed technical or fundamental signals could shift the prevailing scenario.

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