China passenger car market seen falling below 19 million units as demand weakens

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Olga Shendetskaya

11.11.2026

China passenger car market seen falling below 19 million units as demand weakens — China car sales dip

China's domestic passenger vehicle market is on track to drop below 19 million units in 2026, marking the first time since 2014 that sales fall under that threshold. The outlook underscores softer consumer demand even as the country's auto exports continue to show resilience.

Highlights

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers forecasts 2024 domestic passenger vehicle sales will fall below 19 million units, the lowest since 2014.
China's overall vehicle sales slid 9.2% in October year-on-year, outpacing September's 8.4% annual decline, indicating accelerating domestic weakness.
Full-year vehicle exports from China are expected to surpass 11 million units, underscoring increased reliance on overseas markets amid soft local demand.

Sales forecast points to weaker domestic demand

As reported by Reuters, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers says domestic passenger vehicle sales are projected to fall below 19 million units this year, the first such decline beneath that level since 2014.

The forecast highlights weakening demand in the world's largest auto market. Overall vehicle sales, including commercial vehicles, fall 9.2% in October from a year earlier, a steeper drop than the 8.4% decline recorded in September.

Exports remain a bright spot for the industry

In contrast with softer domestic sales, vehicle exports remain strong. The association expects full-year shipments to exceed 11 million units.

The divergence between falling sales at home and rising shipments abroad points to a growing dependence on overseas markets for China's auto industry as local consumption weakens.

In a previous article, we explained how China’s 2026 growth outlook hinges on fresh policy support amid weak consumer demand.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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